US Economics Update Lehmans – trying (and failing) to find a silver lining 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update US GSE rescue provides no pointers for the UK The US government’s initially well-received intervention to support the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has prompted debate over the case for similar sort of... 10th September 2008 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus GSE bailout could wreck Federal budget, but worth the risk 10th September 2008 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Criticism of inflation measures aimed in the wrong direction 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the US housing market stabilising? The latest round of news on the housing market has been surprisingly upbeat but don’t be fooled into believing that the sector has bottomed out. 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Financial losses from the consumer credit binge to reach $700bn We estimate that over the next three years the financial losses resulting from the surge in defaults on US mortgages and other consumer loans will add up to close to $700bn, or 6% of US GDP . Roughly... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How much further will US house prices fall? Houses are still substantially over-valued even though prices have already fallen by around 10% on the Case-Shiller national index . An additional decline of between 10% and 15% this year would put... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer dangers just as great in the UK The parallels between UK and US consumers are disturbing, with the UK consumer sector having seen just as big a build-up of imbalances as that in the US. The UK could therefore soon find itself... 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Consumer dangers just as great in the UK The parallels between UK and US consumers are disturbing, with the UK consumer sector having seen just as big a build-up of imbalances as that in the US. The UK could therefore soon find itself... 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sorry Mr Darling, but Britain may not be as safe as you think US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke at length yesterday of the serious ongoing problems in the US housing, mortgage and credit markets and the drastic measures which are likely to be required... 14th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Australia & Canada: explaining contrasting monetary policies The contrasting monetary polices being pursued by the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are a good illustration of why only countries with strong trade and financial links to the... 5th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank of Canada takes the initiative Signs that the downturn in the US is now having a marked impact on Canada prompted the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by a bigger 50 basis points today, to 3.5%. (See Chart.) Moreover, the... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus US corporate profits to fall sharply in 2008 We expect US corporate profits to fall by around 7.5% this year as the impact of the wider economic slowdown more than offsets any boost to earnings from the weaker dollar. This is not yet fully... 10th January 2008 · 1 min read
