US Data Response ISM Manuf. Index (Oct.) & Personal Income (Sep.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in October will not prevent the Fed from announcing more quantitative easing (QE) on Wednesday. September's personal spending and income data show that... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ready to roll the dice again With Republicans set to make significant gains in this week's mid-term elections, our suspicion is that fiscal policy will end up being largely paralysed for the next two years. The Fed should... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Output growth rebounds from overly-weak July Stronger August GDP data partially reflect temporary factors related to housing, while supporting prospects of stronger and sustained business investment. Overall, there is nothing in this report to... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) At 2.0% annualised, third-quarter GDP growth remained well below the economy's trend growth rate of between 2.5% and 3.0%, underlining why many Fed officials think another bout of quantitative easing... 29th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Struggling to find a higher gear (Oct 10) Our econometric model indicates that payroll employment increased by a disappointing 50,000 in October, suggesting that the labour market recovery is still struggling to find a higher gear. Private... 28th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch QE2 unlikely to have a major economic impact (Oct 10) At this stage, it would be a fairly big shock if the Fed did not announce a new programme of asset purchases at next week's two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday (3rd November). Chairman... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & New Home Sales (Sep.) September's durable goods orders suggest that the industrial recovery is nearing extinction. With the housing market still in no fit state to pick up the baton of growth, the economy is going to... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Oct.) & House Prices (Aug.) The rebound in equity prices has started to boost consumer confidence, but further gains could be limited by a renewed slide in house prices. Households are unlikely to be in the mood to spend for... 26th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Moving closer to deflation The US economy moved a bit closer to deflation in September, when core consumer prices were unchanged for the second month in a row and the annual growth rate fell to a 49-year low of just 0.8%. (See... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing: From leader to laggard? The manufacturing sector has been one of the few success stories in the otherwise disappointing economic recovery. But the stellar manufacturing recovery is fading so fast that there is a chance it... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will the weaker dollar do for US corporate profits? The dollar’s slide is a welcome boost for US companies. A weaker currency not only allows exporters to gain market share and boost their margins, but also benefits those firms selling goods at home... 21st October 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Not out of the woods yet A double-dip in both housing activity and prices is underway. Prices are likely to fall for the next 12 months, while activity will remain weak for at least three years. 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More dovish Bank of Canada may yet ease again (Oct 10) The Bank of Canada appears some way from further monetary tightening. Economic conditions would have to improve substantially and by enough to offset the increasing downside risks to future inflation... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The annual rate of decline in our Capital Economics' measure of M3 continues to slow. (See Chart below.) There is a good chance that the widely expected second round of quantitative easing from the... 19th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep 10) Manufacturing output contracted by 0.2% m/m in September, illustrating that the previously robust recovery in the factory sector is definitely behind us now and this could even be the start of a... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Prices start to fall back (Oct 10) House prices have started to fall back in response to the plunge in sales seen since the homebuyer tax credit expired in April. Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA indices showed prices fell in July. (See... 18th October 2010 · 1 min read
