Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (May) While the headline export number for May shows significant improvement from a grim April, this was mostly driven by volatile gold exports, where non-mineral product exports declined in the month... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2025) & International Trade (May 2025) The 147,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was reassuring after the fall in the ADP measure of employment reported yesterday. A deeper dive shows the strength was again concentrated in government... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q2 2025) The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as... 2nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the Treasury rally to last the year We expect Treasuries to struggle over the rest of the year, despite their recent strong run. 2nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS shows little sign of labour market weakness The JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy in May, with job openings and private sector hiring rising, and layoffs low. However, the sharp rise in accommodation and food services job... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We’re not convinced the dollar will keep falling The weakness in the dollar in June was easier to explain than its slide in April and May since – unlike in those months – it was accompanied by a shift in bond yields that might have been expected to... 1st July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2025) The modest rebound in the ISM headline index to 49.0 in June, from 48.5, should temper concerns of a factory sector collapse driven by tariffs and lingering trade uncertainty. While the hit to... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Record S&P 500 doesn’t mean record optimism With the S&P 500 at a new all-time high, its fall of more than 20% earlier this year already seems like a distant memory. However, we don’t think it’s really back to square one for US equities. 30th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Housing is struggling under the weight of high borrowing costs – a problem unlikely to ease if, as we expect, the Fed holds rates steady this year due to tariff-driven inflation, followed by only a... 30th June 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Investment falls short; battery storage ramps up While the amount of investment dedicated to clean energy is rising, findings from the IEA suggest that the current trend in energy investment remains inconsistent with achieving net-zero emissions by... 30th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Dip in house prices won’t turn into deeper correction Recent house price declines suggest a shift toward a more buyer-friendly market, as rising home listings increase choice and temper seller expectations. Nonetheless, leading indicators and solid... 30th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: High services inflation not a big concern The CPI data showed the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose by an average of 0.2% m/m in May, which was lower than in the previous month but still a bit too strong... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump fast-tracks search for Powell successor Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a careful balance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week, offering no signal that a July cut is likely, while keeping the door open to reductions later in... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
