US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Apr 28-29) The minutes from the Fed’s late April meeting were even more hawkish than expected based on the initial post meeting communications, which had been largely unchanged despite some dissents. The most... 20th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Forget the S&P’s 500 valuation, its earnings are flashing red One consequence of the US stock market’s resilience to the recent sell-off in Treasuries has been a decline in the US equity risk premium (ERP). Nonetheless, the US stock market’s relative valuation... 20th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2026) If energy prices gradually ease in the second half of this year, as in our baseline, GDP growth should average 2.1% this year and pick up to 2.3% next year. Higher gasoline prices will weigh on... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What would it take to trigger the “Trump put”? With the pain in global government bond markets intensifying over recent days and equity markets starting to wobble too, the so-called “Trump put” may soon come into play again. But, judging by the... 19th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Care home demand to boom in Asia and North America The long-term demographic drivers of care home demand are well-rehearsed, but there is likely to be a degree of offset from factors that will keep more seniors living at home for longer. Nevertheless... 19th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr 2026) The muted pace of core price growth in April likely reflects the softness of the labour market and consumer demand. That, in turn, reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to follow through with the... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey implies Iran war will increase US cap rates The latest RICS survey showed that the Iran war has dampened both occupier and investor sentiment, with the latter seeing a larger fall. Rental expectations held up though, which implies the fall in... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strait worries grow; bad news still bad news for bonds Although bonds have sometimes rallied after severe oil price shocks, we suspect that’s not on the cards just yet. Meanwhile, flattening yield curves at the “ultra-long” end suggest, among other things... 18th May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (Apr. 26) 15th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Tech-led stock market surge looks increasingly fragile Another sharp reversal in US equities after a new all-time high and dotcom bubble parallels at every turn make the fragility of this rally clear. We think AI sentiment can lift the market further this... 15th May 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly This time is transitory? Kevin Warsh now begins his four-year term as Fed Chair, but the April price data suggest he will have a tough time persuading his FOMC colleagues that they should cut interest rates again in this... 15th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC still biding its time while war plays out The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s April meeting didn’t give too much away, though the optimist in us would argue that the tone was less hawkish than in prior communications. This... 15th May 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr 2026) The 0.6% m/m rise in manufacturing output in April was partly due to a rebound in the transportation equipment sector, but there are also signs that the AI buildout is beginning to support activity... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2026) There were some encouraging signs of stabilisation in the headline housing market indicators for April, but the further decline in the sales-to-new listing ratio and recent rise in fixed mortgage... 15th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar 2026) The 1.0% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in March takes them back in line with their 2025 average and the jump in the S&P Global manufacturing PMI in April bodes well for the near-term... 15th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets aren’t braced for an ‘extreme’ scenario in the Iran war The Iran war poses two key threats to the global economy – higher inflation and weaker growth. Up until now, the markets have responded to the first but seemingly ignored – or at least ‘looked through... 14th May 2026 · 4 mins read
