Capital Daily Increasingly narrow equity rally rings alarm bells The strong performance of the IT sector has helped to drag the S&P 500 index to a new all-time high today. But this stock market rally looks narrow even by recent standards – the average firm in the... 6th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Aug. 2026) The widening of the trade deficit in August on the back of a sharp rise in imports suggests third quarter GDP growth will be well below our current forecast of 4.0%. 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Aug. 2026) The rebound in the goods trade surplus in August, to its joint-highest since the start of 2025, owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of Section 338 tariffs. While it provides... 6th October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Tariffs likely to far outlast Trump The precarious fiscal situation means the next administration will be in no rush to remove the tariffs that are in place at the end of President Trump’s term. Nonetheless, under most future scenarios... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM services index leaves our activity-weighted composite index consistent with GDP growth of around 2.5% in the third quarter, while its S&P Global counterpart points to an even... 5th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities What the US midterms might mean for markets The main risks for financial markets from the midterms are a contested election outcome, emboldened Democrats pushing for Trump’s impeachment, and concerns about a leftward shift by the Democratic... 5th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Red flags flying in the bond market? The recent steepening of the yield curve is arguably a cause for concern, but our base case remains that long-dated yields will fall back. 5th October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed can afford to be patient Both this week’s economic data and Fed commentary skewed dovish on balance, pushing back against the idea that the Fed will move again in October. 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher yields add to the headwinds for consumers Higher yields are only a modest headwind for consumers but, at a time when real income growth is already slowing, they are another reason to expect weaker consumer spending growth in the coming... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities need a bond rally more than it seems The surge in Treasury yields has put equities under more pressure than headline returns may suggest. If yields remain high much longer or rise further, more serious cracks may soon emerge in the stock... 2nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep. 2026) The softer payroll gain and tick up in the unemployment rate in September is not enough to spoil the image of a labour market which is broadly performing well, though it has helped trim investors’... 2nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) With 30-year fixed mortgage rates now at a near three-year high of 7.3%, the near-term outlook for home sales and prices remains weak. However, we expect things to improve from next year as energy... 1st October 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Credit markets are feeling the pain The S&P 500 may have largely withstood the surge in Treasury yields so far but US corporate bonds have not been so lucky. And we suspect credit spreads will rise further over the coming year or so. 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Sep. 2026) The small fall in the ISM Manufacturing Index to 54.5 in September, paired with the downward revision to the flash estimate of its S&P Global counterpart, gives a slightly less favourable impression... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Self-storage, SFR and senior living offer the greatest potential Alternatives with strong secular drivers are well placed to deliver robust demand growth, with those that are less institutionalised – such as self-storage, single-family rental and senior living –... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside growth risks to limit rate hikes Trade uncertainty and lower immigration will limit GDP growth to 1.5% next year, keeping core inflation from drifting too far back above target. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada will only hike twice... 30th September 2026 · 14 mins read
