US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Mar 17-18) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-March meeting suggest that the spike in oil prices led to more concern about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to the labour market, with “some”... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Major fiscal stimulus ahead of midterms looks unlikely The Republican-held Congress is likely to use its sole budget reconciliation for this fiscal year to pass a narrow bill to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and top up the Pentagon’s... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2026) As the timeliest housing activity data we get, the drop in home purchase mortgage applications throughout March is the first clear evidence of homebuyers pulling back in response to higher borrowing... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Even a war didn’t dampen investors’ appetite for risk much If the ceasefire does mark the “beginning of the end” of the war, then the conflict will have had surprisingly little effect on risk premia in US markets. But that doesn’t mean, in our view, that they... 8th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2026) The rise in core (ex. transport) durable goods orders in February shows American industry was battling on ahead of the surge in oil prices, despite the heightened uncertainty caused by tariffs... 7th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Listed BDC data highlight mounting private credit distress While some of the recent slump in listed US Business Development Companies’ (BDCs) valuations may be overdone, several of the risk metrics we track suggest that stress is building beneath the surface... 7th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Could equities recover even if the war heated up further? History suggests that US equities and oil won’t necessarily hit their turning points at the same time during this conflict, but we suspect they’ll nonetheless remain closely linked in the near term. 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2026) The larger-than-expected rebound in non-farm payrolls in March mainly reflects a reversal of the strike and weather effects that weighed on hiring in February, rather than being a sign that the labour... 3rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries offering little protection against stocks Yet another volatile 24hours in financial markets saw Treasuries offer little protection against falls in US equities, as has been the case throughout the war. We doubt it will suddenly become a more... 2nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still calm about second-round inflation effects The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s March policy meetings gave no indication that policymakers are overly concerned about second‑round inflationary pressures stemming from the... 2nd April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Iran war hits home at gasoline price surpasses $4 The consequences of the Iran war became even more conspicuous for consumers this week, with the national average gasoline price rising above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Thankfully, the... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb. 2026) February’s further widening in the goods trade deficit is not quite as bad as it first appears, with a surge in volatile gold and other precious metal imports accounting for most of the move, while... 2nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2026) Large gold outflows were once again met by sizeable computer imports to keep the trade deficit largely unchanged in February and our first-quarter GDP growth estimate near to 3%. 2nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Focus The retreat from sovereign bond duration Supply/demand dynamics in long-dated sovereign debt markets are deteriorating, with demand from traditional sources waning and supply remaining strong. And now fiscal support in response to the Iran... 2nd April 2026 · 22 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2026) The slight rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in March masks the unease among firms evident in the breakdown, with new orders dropping back and supplier delivery times lengthening. The further rise... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in control group retail sales in February suggests that consumption was gaining some momentum ahead of the surge in gasoline prices. Nonetheless... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
