US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Never bet against the US consumer has always been a good adage to bear in mind throughout my 20-plus years in the markets. Despite the surge in prices weighing on their purchasing power, the US... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The rise in manufacturing sales in March was entirely due to higher commodity prices, but the orders data and the business surveys suggest that sales volumes will do better in the coming months. 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Lending growth accelerated in April, seeing the strongest monthly gain in over 12 years. And with transactions having seen a fast start to the year, we think there is more to come in the next few... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings might not bail out the S&P 500 The S&P 500 might continue to struggle if, as we expect, slowing economic growth and rising labour costs causes corporate profits to grow by less than most anticipate. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Gasoline price jump to drive CPI inflation above 7% The unexpected further jump in gasoline prices, reflecting a sharp widening of refiners’ margins, means we now expect headline CPI inflation to rise above 7% in May. While the rise in refiners’... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation looking better under the hood Fed officials will have been eyeing the flood of red on their screens this week with a growing sense of foreboding. Admittedly, for GDP growth to slow and inflation to fall, they want financial... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever Over our five-year forecast, we expect in-migration to the South will see apartment rents there outgrow the national average. But further ahead, the greater ability of supply to respond in the South... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial demand returning to West Coast ports Congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach forced some container ships to reroute to the less busy ports of the Gulf Coast, supporting industrial occupier demand in those markets. But we... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The falls in headline and core inflation in April marks the beginning of a sustained decline, as base effects improve and supply shortages ease, although the 0.6% monthly jump in core prices indicates... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rate rise hits housing market activity The rise in mortgage rates, to a 12-year high in mid-April, is now starting to weigh on housing market activity, with new and existing home sales falling back over the past couple of months. With... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
US Economics Focus What to expect from QT We expect the Fed to reduce its asset holdings by more than $3trn over the next couple of years, enough to bring the balance sheet back in line with its pre-pandemic level as a share of GDP. That... 10th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Will a housing downturn crash the economy? We expect higher interest rates to cause a 10% fall in house prices over the next 12 months and an even steeper fall in residential investment. With the rest of the economy still recovering from the... 9th May 2022 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Forecast downgrades, but the sky is not about to fall Rises in short-and-long interest rates and the likelihood of further increases over the next 12 months pose a threat to real estate prices. While some have suggested that this will not derail market... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
