US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales have levelled off in recent months, but leading indicators support our view that sales will fall a little further by the end of the year. Looking ahead, we expect stretched... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recession odds rising Despite the resilience evident in the latest round of hard data, our recession tracker models suggest the odds of a downturn next year are still rising. 23rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth easing; wage growth slowing We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 175,000 in November, although that should be sufficient to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. 23rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The solid 1.0% m/m rise in durable goods orders in October indicates that business equipment investment continues to hold up reasonably well in the face of higher borrowing costs, helped by a boost to... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update What will the Bank make of the October CPI data? Although the annual rates of core inflation increased in October, we suspect the Bank of Canada will point to the declines in the 3-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median to justify... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing global growth likely to weigh more on equities than oil Supply constraints in key oil producers lead us to believe that the price of oil and US equity indices will diverge if, as we expect, the global economy slips into recession. 22nd November 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls set to accelerate The sharp rise in Treasury yields this year has finally begun to feed through to the property data. Q3 investment activity fell by more than 20% on both a q/q and y/y basis, with loan originations... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The small fall in retail sales volumes in September appears to have been reversed in October but, more generally, sales volumes have been little changed for the past six months and the low leve of... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think Bund yields will fall by less than Treasury yields Although we think the yields of high-grade, long-dated government bonds will fall in general in the next couple of years, we expect those of Bunds to fall by less than those of Treasuries, as... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update US oil output will edge higher next year High oil prices have led to a recovery in US oil investment this year. But US crude production gains have been tempered by rising business costs and an emphasis on returning profits to shareholders... 21st November 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed strikes back This week Fed officials pushed back against the market rally in the wake of October’s unexpectedly weak CPI report, but with only limited success. Despite officials reaffirming that they still had “a... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) A renewed rise in mortgage rates led to the largest month-on-month decline in existing home sales since February. As the impact of higher rates continues to feed through in the coming months, we... 18th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly October CPI data offer some encouragement Although the data this week showed renewed rises in the annual rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation in October, our calculations show that the timelier 3-month annualised measures both declined... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update October CPI: US/Europe contrast to endure in 2023 The October inflation data highlighted a contrast between the US and Europe, with core price pressures easing materially in the US but staying stronger in the euro-zone and UK. We think this will be... 18th November 2022 · 5 mins read
