US Housing Market Update NYC apartment rental growth will cool rapidly Rental growth in NYC reached 22% y/y in Q1 2022, one of the fastest rates in the country. But we expect growth to cool rapidly from here and underperform other cities. The past surge in rents largely... 25th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales dropped sharply to a two-year low in April. But while rising mortgage rates are weighing on sales, the drop looks large given the fall in mortgage applications seen so far and may be... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Metro upturn continues, but capital growth set to slow The metro level data confirmed another strong quarter for commercial real estate in Q1, though with the usual wide range of performance across sectors and cities. For offices, rents in the larger... 24th May 2022 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Another punchy quarter, but capital growth set to slow Setting aside the drag from net exports on GDP growth, Q1 was another strong quarter for both the domestic economy and commercial real estate markets, highlighted by a record first quarter for... 20th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still rising, as housing slumps The Bank of Canada will have eyed this week’s data releases and market moves with some trepidation. The further acceleration in core CPI inflation in April means the Bank is all but guaranteed to push... 20th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Spender of last resort With China’s economy hampered by its zero-covid lockdowns, and Europe’s economy suffering because of the massive surge in imported energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine, the American consumer has... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage debt service ratio to remain low The surge in mortgage rates has led to a sharp deterioration in home affordability. But that doesn’t mean the mortgage debt service ratio, the share of disposable income spent on mortgage payments... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales fell once again in April, although for now they remain above their pre-COVID-19 level. But, with mortgage rates set to stay high and credit conditions unlikely to loosen... 19th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy powering ahead The strength of the hard activity data for April refutes the recent message from financial markets that the economy is at risk of imminent recession. The solid gain in control group retail sales... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) CPI inflation edged up to a new cyclical high of 6.8% in April, from 6.7%, and, together with the more marked increases in core inflation, that almost guarantees the Bank of Canada will hike its... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts dropped by a marginal 0.2% m/m in April, driven by the single-family sector which also saw building permits fall for the second month in a row. Housing demand is faltering due to a... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative prospects for US equity REITs We expect US equity REITs to remain under pressure between now and the middle of next year, given our view of the US stock and bond markets. Nonetheless, we doubt they will underperform US equities... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.8% rise in manufacturing output last month underlines that it is not just consumer spending powering the economy forward. While the survey evidence suggests global manufacturing demand is... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
