Asset Allocation Update Three questions for markets, two months into the crisis With disruptions to global energy markets now having lasted two months this Update asks, and answers, three key questions about how financial markets have fared so far. First, why have equities... 28th April 2026 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 2026: Little divergence in regions and core sectors Income returns are already accounting for almost all the total return in the traditional sectors, but senior housing stood out positively again in Q1, seeing strong capital growth and posting a 3.9%... 27th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit CLOs not a repeat of 2008 CDOs The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risk rally on borrowed time while the Strait remains closed If the diplomatic and military stalemate between the US and Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remain largely closed, policymakers and market participants will find it increasingly difficult to... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Broad-based small cap outperformance may continue A storming rally in the tech sector has obscured the fact that the average US small cap has markedly beaten the average large cap over recent weeks. We think this trend has a bit further to run. 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than we expected, but the bigger news is that the flash estimate points to only a 0.6% rise in retail sales values in March... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equity-dollar correlation will remain strong until the war is over The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Higher gasoline prices will weigh moderately on consumption, but there are signs that investment will broaden out beyond AI-related spending. We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% this year and next... 23rd April 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update CRE construction cost rises most impactful in retail and hotels Commercial real estate construction costs are already showing signs of rising due to the Iran war. While this will weigh on profitability of new projects, the impact will vary by sector, with retail... 23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Powell’s departure upstaged as Warsh readies Fed revamp The FOMC will leave the fed funds target range at 3.50–3.75% next week, while likely providing a slightly more hawkish policy statement. But assuming Chair Powell doesn’t go rogue at what should be... 23rd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Elevated oil prices to give BoC meeting a hawkish tilt The improved growth backdrop and nascent threat of higher inflation expectations means the Bank of Canada will keep rates on hold again but likely take a more hawkish tone at its meeting next week. 22nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Why Treasuries are unlikely to regain a lot more ground The main reason why the yields of long-dated Treasuries haven’t dropped all the way back to their levels before the start of the Iran war is a major reassessment of the prospects for Fed policy. And... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about private credit and macro risk We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 22nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) The economic fallout from events in the Middle East is developing broadly in line with our baseline scenario, leaving WTI on track to average $80/barrel in the second half of the year. The reduced... 22nd April 2026 · 1 min read
