Capital Daily Section 899 might not be so taxing on US bonds and equities We doubt Section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House of Representatives in May will have the big negative effects on US asset markets that some seem to fear, even if it remains... 4th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jun. 2025.) The Bank of Canada avoided surprising markets by keeping interest rates unchanged at 2.75% today, as it continues to wait to see what the full impact of uncertain US trade policy on the economy will... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (May 2025) The rise in home purchase mortgage applications in May still leaves them just shy of where they were in January and very low by historical standards, supporting our view that homebuying activity will... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS data continue to show a healthy labour market April’s JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy at the start of the second quarter, with job openings rising and layoffs low. While there are some pockets of weakness in areas most at... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Aluminium and steel: higher tariffs → bigger impacts The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US small caps can't catch a break To some extent, the persistent underperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities probably reflects lingering concerns about the effects of Donald Trump’s policies on the economy. But even if fears of a... 2nd June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2025) The surprise decline in the ISM manufacturing index in May indicates that tariffs continue to weigh significantly on the sector. While the May data is less gloomy than initially appears, as a sharp... 2nd June 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Court rulings leave trade policy in disarray Although this week’s court ruling – that President Trump doesn’t have the “unbounded authority” to impose universal tariffs on other countries – has been temporarily stayed, there is a fair chance... 30th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: BoC to weigh up possibility of tariff reprieve The removal of the 25% fentanyl-related US tariffs would not transform the outlook for the Canadian economy, which would still suffer due to the impact of other tariffs and general uncertainty over... 30th May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) All-property capital values edged up by 0.1% in Q1, marking the first increase since mid-2022. Meanwhile, appraisal-based cap rates were flat after compressing by a slight margin in Q4 2024. We still... 30th May 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Apr. 2025) With imports slumping after President Trump imposed his tariffs in early April and consumer spending continuing to recover after this year’s unusually severe winter, we now forecast that after... 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1 2025) Despite the upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth, the contraction in domestic demand means we are sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. 30th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: RIP IRA?; US solar stocks sink; EU-UK ETS linkage President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” that would significantly restrict access to tax credits provided under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is one step closer to becoming reality, which adds to... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US equity exceptionalism back for good? We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500. But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth to defy DOGE purge again We forecast a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May. Federal job losses may increase as severance periods end, but initial claims suggest any impact will once again be modest. We expect the... 29th May 2025 · 3 mins read
