US Commercial Property Update Q1 26 PREA consensus much more optimistic than us The Q1 PREA consensus for returns of 6.8% p.a. over 2026-30 is significantly above our call for returns of 5.2% p.a. Our view that appraised cap rates have further to rise is behind that difference... 12th March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as it waits for more clarity With the FOMC set to keep the fed funds target range between 3.50% and 3.75% next week, the focus will be on any changes to the policy statement and new economic projections. The most hawkish outcome... 12th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 sector implications of the surge in oil prices The relative resilience of the S&P 500’s ‘big-tech’ sectors since the US and Israel attacked Iran is a stark contrast to their underperformance when oil prices surged in 2022. It might reflect... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jan. 2026) Gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment were once again the main drivers behind moves in the trade deficit in January, while limited revisions to preceding months’ figures suggest little change to... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jan 2026) Housing starts were strong in January, despite the poor weather, but permit data suggest that February’s number will be weaker. Meanwhile, the recent rebound in Treasury yields due to the Iran... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jan. 2026) The plunge in exports in January, together with the large decline in wholesale sales volumes, points to downside risks to the flash estimate that GDP was unchanged at the start of the year. If so... 12th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Iran conflict a small downside risk to US commercial real estate returns The increase in energy costs brought about by the conflict in Iran could hit commercial real estate returns either through squeezed occupier margins and therefore weaker property demand and rent... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What do higher oil prices mean for Canada? Higher oil prices are positive for the Canadian economy and will boost inflation but, unless prices rise significantly further and stay there for several months, we doubt the Bank of Canada would... 11th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) The modest 0.22% m/m gain in the core CPI in February is not as good news as it first seems, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.42% gain in the core PCE deflator. That would maintain the... 11th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Revisiting the risks around private credit Private credit funds have attracted growing scrutiny amid falling valuations and its exposure to software companies. Under a severe default scenario, losses might amount to around 0.4% of US GDP. That... 11th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Focus What would $100 oil mean for the economy and Fed? The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly... 10th March 2026 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Market implications of three scenarios for the conflict Growing optimism that the conflict in the Middle East will be severe but short-lived has been accompanied over the past 24 hours by some retreat in the price of oil and a partial unwinding of the big... 10th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2026) The surprise rebound in existing home sales in February increases our confidence that January’s weakness was largely weather-related and that resale activity will pick up again in the Spring as more... 10th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Escalation and asset markets With the war continuing to escalate, this edition of the Capital Daily takes stock of how markets have fared so far and provides some thoughts on what might – and might not – continue to fare the best... 9th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy price shock and disappointing jobs report The surge in oil prices will be a negative for the economy, with domestic oil producers unlikely to raise production until it is clear that Middle East disruptions, and the resulting elevated prices... 6th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily US stock market – down but not out Cracks in the US labour market have sparked a risk-off mood in markets, with Treasuries rallying and the S&P 500 sinking to its lows of the year. That said, the latter has been remarkably resilient... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
