Capital Daily Interest rate tail risks and equities US equities are influenced by the distribution of investors’ fed funds rate expectations, not just the average level of them. A perceived reduction in overall tail risks is one factor that has... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada to remain on hold this year The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada not likely to hike any time soon The slightly dovish shift in language from the Bank of Canada today provides support to our forecast that it will leave interest rates unchanged this year. 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (June 2026) The rise in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran War will worsen already-stretched housing affordability. This will weigh on housing activity over the next couple of quarters and presents a... 10th June 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2026) The moderate 0.21% m/m rise in the core CPI in May was not as bad as we feared and the move was relatively narrow in nature, which should reassure the FOMC that price pressures are not broadening... 10th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q2 26 PREA consensus forecasts cut, especially for residential There was another reduction in the PREA consensus total return forecast for both 2026 and 2027 this quarter, led by the residential sector. However, this still left the consensus more optimistic than... 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Could bonds bring equities back down to Earth again? Last Friday’s pullback in US equities, as Treasury yields soared in the wake of a strong employment report, suggests bonds might be the straw that eventually breaks the stock market’s back. 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Have AI effects shifted to boosting US employment? It is hard to accurately gauge the extent to which the adoption of AI is affecting payrolls, but the recent improvement in jobs growth in those industries most exposed to AI suggests any negative... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (May 2026) The rise in existing home sales in May was a bit stronger than we expected but, given the further increase in mortgage rates in recent weeks, we remain concerned about the downside risks to our... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Apr. 2026) Strength in exports not just an oil price story The improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance bodes well for GDP growth at the start of the second quarter. While higher oil prices continued to... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2026) Although the trade deficit was little changed in April, our calculations suggest that gold-adjusted export volumes far outpaced import volumes. That leaves net trade on track to make an even stronger... 9th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back under pressure, and relief may be uneven Inflation – and central banks’ response to it – may continue to be a thorn in the side of the bond market for a while. But, there’s still limited evidence in markets of runaway inflation expectations... 8th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Booming payrolls point to higher UST yields & stronger dollar Another robust US non-farm payrolls report means our central forecast is now that the FOMC raises the fed funds rate later this year. In turn, that implies a further rise in US Treasury yields and the... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chartpack (Q2 2026) All-property capital values ticked up slightly in Q1, reflecting the US’ relative insulation from the effects of the Iran war so far. However, we don’t think it will be totally unaffected, while we... 5th June 2026 · 0 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Tariffs back on the agenda The Trump administration's latest tariff announcement will have a negligible impact on the effective tariff rate for Canada. But it seems the administration will be looking for higher US content... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to hike this year With Fed officials sounding more hawkish than we originally anticipated and downside labour market risks rapidly diminishing, we now expect the Fed to hike interest rates this year. 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
