Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Sep.) Consumer sentiment fell back to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, from 58.2, as fears over both higher inflation and labour market weakness weighed on households. That leaves the University of... 12th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Respite at the very long end of the yield curve may be brief We don’t think the falls in the yields of very long-dated government bonds will last much longer. 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Why r* is still heading to 2% Recent bond market movements suggest that equilibrium real interest rates may have risen further, perhaps justified by strong AI investment and persistently high government borrowing. But some recent... 11th September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Labour market slump to prompt BoC to resume cuts Officials indicated in July that they could support further interest rate cuts if the labour market continued to soften. That is exactly what has happened since, while the upside risks to inflation... 10th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Weak labour demand forces Fed off the sidelines Easing labour market conditions mean the FOMC is set to vote for a 25bp cut next week, lowering the fed funds target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, although a rare triple dissent in favour of a... 10th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Equities Update What next for the S&P 500 after another all-time high? All-time highs in the S&P 500 and years of strong gains don’t mean the index is set to run out of steam. Rather than the level or momentum of the market, history suggests that returns from here will... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 PREA consensus forecasts predict a steady recovery for US CRE The latest PREA consensus forecasts showed a minor downgrade in the all-property forecast, both for the next two years and the 2025-29 average. That was driven by downgrades in the residential, senior... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More to the S&P 500’s strength than the prospect of easier money While the prospect of looser Fed policy has helped to drive the S&P 500 to new highs in recent months, there is another reason the index has surged. This isn’t an increase in its valuation compared to... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2025) The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2025) The preliminary benchmark estimate points to a massive 911,000 downward revision to the level of non-farm payroll employment in March 2025 and, based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
