Capital Daily Volatility may weigh on semiconductor stocks Semiconductor stocks appear increasingly volatile relative to the broader stock market. While that alone is hardly cause for them to underperform, it could become a headwind to them if it continues. 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2026) The strong rise in retail sales in May was far broader than a price-driven increase in gasoline spending, with sales excluding gasoline and underlying control group sales both rising an impressive 0.7... 17th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Some reasons for caution, but not panic, on the S&P 500 Despite some warning signs under the hood of the S&P 500’s rally, we aren’t ready to call time on it yet. The market could make further gains, potentially quite large ones, before running into any... 17th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Jun. 2026) The housing market showed firmer signs of improvement in May and, with oil prices dropping back sharply in the past week, there is now a lower chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to spoil... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (May 2026) Looking past the volatility in multifamily starts, the latest batch of data suggest the housing market is just about weathering the latest rise in mortgage rates. 16th June 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2026) The weaker-than-expected unchanged manufacturing output reading in May suggests the sector is not entirely immune to elevated oil prices, despite the structural tailwind from the AI buildout... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Apr 2026) The 1.8% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes in April was not solely down to the oil sector, feeding the narrative that a nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector is underway and supporting... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (May) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate in May reached its highest level since December 2025, at $15.4bn. Both multifamily and other commercial sectors saw their highest monthly net lending... 15th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US IPO wave adds another red flag to the AI boom Asset markets have rebounded on the latest reports of (yet another) imminent US-Iran peace deal, but the bigger test facing the US equity market is arguably the incoming mega-IPOs, the first of which... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly BoC unlikely to kick off hiking cycle this year The dovish communications from the Bank of Canada this week, as well as hopes that a US-Iran peace deal is just round the corner, suggest the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged this... 12th June 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Higher inflation not just an energy problem May's weaker than expected core CPI outturn and the recent fall in oil prices will be some relief to the Fed, but the big picture remains that core PCE inflation is likely to remain above 3% for many... 12th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What risk does the IPO boom pose to the stock market? Blockbuster IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, together with share sales by some AI hyperscalers, look set to unleash a wave of equity supply that will prove a major test for the stock market... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMC Kevin Warsh’s first meeting back on the FOMC should be an eventful one, with the new Chair trying to tame a committee that is sounding a lot more hawkish. Indeed, we now judge that the Fed’s next move... 11th June 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2026) The May PPI data brought worse news for the Fed than was the case with the CPI data, with large gains in the portfolio management and airfares components pushing our estimate for the core PCE deflator... 11th June 2026 · 2 mins read
