Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growing at a healthy pace Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well over the first few months of this year. Admittedly, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on demand for the region’s hydrocarbon exports. But... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Does Egypt need an IMF deal? Egypt has muddled through without an IMF deal for over two years, as bilateral aid has staved off a full-blown balance of payments crisis. But this cannot go on forever. The longer Egypt goes without... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt refrains from hiking interest rates The Egyptian central bank’s decision to hold interest rates today came as a surprise, but with the country still on the brink of a full-blown balance-of-payments crisis we would not be surprised if... 9th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian cabinet reshuffle doesn't change bigger picture The reshuffle of Egypt’s cabinet, including a complete overhaul of the government’s economic team, doesn’t change the bigger picture that achieving support from across the political spectrum for much... 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs suggest growth divisions widening April’s PMI data paint a familiar picture of continued economic weakness in Egypt and continued rapid growth in the Gulf. 7th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mounting risks for Egypt's banks Egyptian banks have been remarkably stable throughout the political upheaval of the past few years. If we’re right in thinking that Egypt’s economy will continue to muddle through without falling into... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt and the IMF: still no breakthrough Political deadlock in Egypt has placed another obstacle in the way of negotiations with the IMF. A team from the Fund left Cairo earlier this month without an agreement in place, apparently as a... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilient Gulf unlikely to boost resource-poor economies The Gulf economies are on course to grow at a decent pace this year, but the boost to their resource-poor neighbours is likely to be limited. Trade and investment links are surprisingly small. Instead... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation still on course to reach double digits Egyptian inflation edged down in March, but it has still risen sharply since the end of last year and we think it will reach double digits over the coming months. The irony is that the recent spike in... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A Gulf in growth The Gulf economies are on course to outperform the rest of the region over the next year or so. Admittedly, weak oil production will act as a drag on growth in 2013. But increased government spending... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies outperforming March’s PMI data suggest that the Gulf economies’ private sectors continue to grow at a robust pace. Meanwhile, there are signs that the downturn in Egypt has deepened as FX restrictions weigh on... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further aid should help to stave off Egyptian default Continued delays to Egypt’s prospective IMF deal have raised the possibility of a default on its FX debt. A team from the Fund is due in Cairo tomorrow to discuss a financing package, but even if a... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond yields spike in Egypt as IMF deal looks further away Yields on Egyptian dollar-denominated bonds have spiked as an IMF deal looks increasingly distant and concerns over the government’s fiscal position mount. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
