Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds fire, for now Despite the fall in inflation in December, the Central Bank of Egypt decided to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting today. We think it’s unlikely that today’s decision marks the end of the... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fallout from Egypt’s “second revolution” not as bad as feared Recently released third quarter GDP data show that the impact on Egypt's economy from July's "second revolution" was not as bad as some, ourselves included, had expected. Elsewhere, Qatar remains the... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs suggest region ended 2013 on a strong note December's 'whole economy' PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa point towards faster growth in Q4 of last year than in Q3. Encouragingly, Egypt's PMI suggests that the economy is continuing to... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian stocks soar to post-Arab Spring high The Egyptian stock market has hit a post-"Arab Spring" high. This comes on the back of signs that the economy may finally be finding its feet as well as recent progress towards fresh elections. 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt outlook may be brightening following a difficult 2013 The Egyptian economy appears to have suffered a tumultuous second half of the year. On a positive note, the latest data provide signs that the economy may finally be finding its feet. And a recovery... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egyptian inflation spikes while economy struggles The surge in Egyptian inflation to 12.9% y/y last month from 10.5% y/y in October took many by surprise. We think that this rise in inflation can largely be pinned on unflattering base effects and the... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown Saudi Arabia’s wide-scale crackdown on illegal migrant workers seems unlikely to have the desired effect of raising the employment of Saudi nationals in the private sector. In the short term, it runs... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: further rate cuts may come in 2014 In spite of October’s rise in inflation, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates today. It looks like the decision was prompted by the weakness of recent hard activity data, as... 5th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy may be finding its feet November's PMI data provide further evidence that the Egyptian economy may be finding its feet after a tumultuous summer. Meanwhile, the Saudi PMI pointed to a pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities hit five-year high as World Expo vote looms Dubai’s equity market hit a five-year high this month amid growing optimism surrounding the Emirate’s economic rebound. Confidence may be given an extra boost if, as is widely expected, Dubai wins the... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s exchange rate pegs? The non-oil producing MENA countries have historically tended to back up their currency pegs to the US dollar by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. But the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi oil boom lifts growth in Q3 The Saudi economy appears to have rebounded in the third quarter of the year. Our GDP tracker points towards growth of around 5% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in Q2. Most of this improvement has come from the... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public jobs no solution to high MENA unemployment High unemployment rates have grabbed the headlines in the MENA region, not only as a catalyst for the Arab Spring revolutions but also for prompting a backlash against expatriate workers in the region... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation on course to fall back next year Egyptian inflation ticked up again last month on the back of a further rise in food inflation. But price pressures look set to ease next year which could bring interest rate cuts back on to the agenda... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tentative signs that the worst may be over for Egypt October’s PMI data provide the first signs that the Egyptian economy may be emerging from the worst of the fallout from the “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies are growing at a healthy... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation behind decision to keep Egypt rates on hold The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
