Asia Economics Update Australia's policy tightening is not over, but will be slow The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. Its commentary was unusually dovish. Nevertheless, above-trend GDP growth still looks likely in 2011-12, which means... 7th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should we worry about India's widening external deficit? The current account shortfall in India has climbed quickly to the equivalent of almost 4% of GDP while the composition of foreign financing has deteriorated. Nevertheless, we judge that this should... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Australia's policy tightening to pause, but not stop The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday and is likely to keep its cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. This is because recent data have been soft while mortgage rates have generally increased by... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A policy rate hike by Bank Indonesia looks close Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate unchanged today at 6.5%. The no-change outcome was not a surprise but we suspect that the decision was finely-balanced. Inflation is picking up fast while... 3rd December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Vietnam heading for another crisis in 2011? Yes is the answer to this question, unless policy-makers change course. A shift is needed towards targeting stability and lower inflation, rather than achieving high growth for its own sake. The good... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia's industrial slowdown is bottoming out The November manufacturing sector PMIs in India, Taiwan, and Korea, which were published today, all climbed relative to October. Strong intra-regional trade and the pick-up in domestic demand are... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's GDP slowdown will be short-lived Australia’s economy in Q3 expanded for the seventh consecutive quarter, albeit at a slow pace. The outlook is upbeat. GDP growth should accelerate soon to an above-trend pace, with investment leading... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand makes the right move The Bank of Thailand (BoT), in a surprise move earlier today, lifted its policy rate by 25bp to 2.0%. Domestic demand is well placed to lift GDP growth during the course of 2011, which means that... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia's slowdown to bottom soon (Q4 10) The post-recession rebound in most of Latin America is showing signs of slowing but growth is likely to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters. We still expect the region to expand by around 4... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's upswing will stay in good shape Q3 GDP data in India, published today, showed that the economy continued to expand at a rapid pace. The upswing will probably stay strong and slowing inflation will remain the top policy priority. We... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's central bank has probably tightened enough The central bank in Pakistan (SBP) today lifted its discount rate by 50bp to 14.0%, as we had expected. The annual gain in consumer prices should peak in coming months and inflation pressures from the... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's upswing to stay in good shape This week’s Q3 GDP data in India will probably show that growth slowed in y/y terms to 8.6%. Nevertheless, our estimate of the GDP trend in q/q seasonally-adjusted terms suggests that growth... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines still set for above-trend growth in 2011 Q3 GDP in the Philippines, published today, was down in q/q terms. We were the only one of those surveyed by Bloomberg to forecast that there would be a contraction, but we remain positive on the... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka targets growth over fiscal consolidation Sri Lanka’s budget for 2011, announced today, aims to sustain the upswing by cutting taxes and by lifting private sector investment. While GDP growth will probably stay rapid next year, the budget... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in Malaysia is returning to what is normal Q3 GDP data in Malaysia, released today, were weaker than expected, as was the case with the figures from Thailand. Nevertheless, the big picture is the same in both countries. The expansion is... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Better balanced growth on the way in Thailand Today’s Q3 GDP data for Thailand were weak but growth is just adjusting to what is normal and can be sustained. What’s more, most of the slowdown has probably now come through. We expect the economy... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
