Asia Economics Weekly Are expectations too high for Modi’s India? All eyes will be on India next week as its much-talked-about election comes to an end. Opinion polls have consistently suggested that the opposition BJP party, which has nominated Narendra Modi as its... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates in Korea to remain on hold until 2015 With the economic recovery gaining momentum, but inflationary pressures still low, the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold came as no surprise. We think interest rates will... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on the verge of tightening monetary policy Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) opted to keep its policy rate at 3.0% today, but the case for monetary tightening is building, and we think BNM could hike rates as early as its next meeting in July. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening likely in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today but hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by a further 100 basis points, as it looks to reduce rising risks in the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in PMIs dashes hopes for sustained recovery in EMs April’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing across the emerging world softened further last month. While there are signs that manufacturing growth in the smaller EMs is starting to lose steam, the... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis is entering a crucial phase Thailand’s political crisis is approaching a critical stage as caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faces key rulings that could force her out of office. There are some signs that the ruling... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia more likely to cut than hike rates later in 2014 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% at its meeting today, and re-iterated that it does not expect to make any changes in the near term. 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in Indonesia to remain lacklustre Indonesia's economy slowed in Q1, and we think that tight monetary policy, along with weak demand for commodity exports, will prevent a bounce-back to the 6%-plus growth rates that not long ago looked... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming soon in the Philippines and Malaysia The coming week sees scheduled monetary policy meetings in five countries. Korea, Australia and Indonesia look almost certain to keep interest rates on hold. The decisions in the Philippines and... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update External demand to bolster Asia's manufacturing recovery The April PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest the region's manufacturing recovery has yet to shift up a gear. However, improving external demand should provide a boost to Asian industry in the coming... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities record a solid month Most of Asia’s stock markets recorded gains in April, buoyed by capital inflows. The positive sentiment toward Asian equities appears to reflect an easing of fears over a hard landing in China, as... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in Emerging Europe picks up pace, but others struggle Although growth has remained roughly unchanged across the emerging world as a whole over the past few months, there are some stark differences in performance across regions. In particular, growth in... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Exports and low interest rates to drive Taiwan recovery Taiwan recorded another quarter of decent growth in Q1, helped by robust exports and private consumption. Looking ahead, the economy should continue growing at a solid pace on the back of loose... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
