Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to stay low in 2014 Emerging market (EM) inflation remained low by historic standards in November. Recent declines in global commodity prices should dampen inflation over the coming months, while we see little sign of... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Our key calls for 2013: how did they stack up? In our final Weekly of 2012 we outlined our key calls for the year ahead. We'll be doing the same again next week before heading off for our Christmas break. This week we take a look back at how we... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM GDP growth edging up With almost a complete set of Q3 GDP data now available, we estimate that aggregate EM growth edged up to 4.8% y/y, from 4.7% y/y in Q2. At a regional level, growth accelerated in Emerging Europe and... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor WTO agreement unlikely to be a game changer The EM export recovery continued in October, led mainly by net commodity importers. Various indiciators point to gradually improving export conditions, suggesting further gains in the months ahead... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening unlikely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates on hold, as expected. With inflation probably having peaked, the current account deficit shrinking, and signs that the central bank is becoming less... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines set for prolonged hold to support reconstruction The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today, as expected. Looking ahead, we expect the BSP will keep monetary policy settings unchanged until 2015 as it looks to... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still likely to wait until Q2 to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. In its statement, the central bank sounded slightly more hawkish on inflation, but it still looks like it will wait... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in no hurry to raise rates The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold today for the seventh consecutive month. With inflationary pressures low and the economy set to stage only a gradual recovery over the next year... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Coalition politics still likely to hinder Indian reform Markets have rallied in India on the back of the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s strong showing in state elections, which puts it in a strong position ahead of the general election in a few months... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis adds to economic concerns Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved parliament today and called for elections "as soon as possible". This step is unlikely to resolve political tensions, given that the opposition... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation rising, but scope for policy to remain loose Inflation in Emerging Asia has picked up in the past few months, albeit to a rate that is still low by historic standards. While the inflation outlook is not quite as benign as it has been for the... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do China’s reforms mean for other EMs? The shift in China's growth model that has been signalled by its leadership would benefit many economies elsewhere in the emerging world while causing difficulties for others. Major commodity... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to raise rates sooner than expected In its latest move to rein in subsidy spending, the Malaysian government this week announced that it will hike electricity tariffs in 2014. Further subsidy cuts, particularly on the fuel front, are... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Elections in the "Fragile Five": threat or an opportunity? Each of the five countries that were the worst hit by the summer currency sell-off (the so-called “Fragile Five”) are due to hold important elections next year. In the short term, uncertainty ahead of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s economy is unlikely to rebalance seamlessly Australia’s economy slowed slightly in the third quarter. We expect growth to remain below trend over the next couple of years as the economy adjusts to cooling mining investment. 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
