Emerging Markets Economics Update Four wildcards for 2014 Our central forecast is for another year of lacklustre growth in the emerging world in 2014. But, as always, there are risks to our forecast - both on the upside and downside. Most attention has... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s political crisis poses growing threat to economy Thailand’s political crisis is showing no sign of nearing an end. A prolonged impasse could disrupt the roll-out of the government’s key public infrastructure projects, and cause further damage to the... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor "Fragile five" trade balances improving EM export growth continued to gather pace in November and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery has further to run. There are signs that the trade balances of the “fragile five” EMs... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Elections in 2014 – what they mean for Asia In this first Weekly of 2014, we take our usual look at the important elections that are set to take place in Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and the region's... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing outperforming in more open EMs Our EM-wide manufacturing PMI edged down last month, but industry still appears to have ended 2013 stronger than it was in the third quarter of last year. At a regional level, activity accelerated in... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka cuts lending rate, further cuts unlikely in 2014 The central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left its deposit rate on hold today, but cut its lending rate to a new record low against a backdrop of easing inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, with economic... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update PMIs suggest continued upturn across most of Asia The December PMIs for Emerging Asia point to gradually improving conditions in the region's manufacturing sectors, other than in China. New orders continued to rise nearly everywhere, suggesting... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thailand ends the year in crisis Thailand heads into 2014 in political crisis. Anti-government protests that began in November have pushed the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, into dissolving parliament and calling new elections... 24th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets shrug off Fed tapering Asian financial markets took the Fed’s decision last week to taper its asset purchases under QE3 largely in their stride. Currencies fell, but not by much, while equity markets on the whole were up... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia in 2014 In this Weekly we outline our key calls for the region in 2014. Emerging Asia will remain a bright spot in the global economy, with growth set to accelerate in most economies on the back of continued... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2014 For all the recent talk of a “Great Deceleration”, we think that the bulk of the slowdown in EM growth has already happened. Growth in aggregate next year looks set to be broadly unchanged from 2013... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's outlook looks upbeat New Zealand’s economy staged a strong rebound in Q3, after drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production in the first half of the year. We expect solid growth next year, underpinned by strong... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EMs to enter tapering on a sound footing Fed tapering may trigger more turbulence in Emerging Market (EM) asset prices over the coming days and months, but the latest Capital Economics Risks Indicator (CERI) suggests that tighter global... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth levels out at start of Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that having accelerated in Q3, EM growth levelled out at the start of Q4. Although we wouldn’t read too much into one month’s data, this is likely to set the scene for 2014... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s hiking cycle looks to be over The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept policy rates on hold at its meeting today. Given that the economic recovery is still very fragile, the central bank is likely to remain patient with inflation... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
