Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit bubbles – where do the risks lie? We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s current credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth in a number of countries will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on prolonged hold With the economy gaining momentum and price pressure benign, it was no surprise that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, we expect the BoT to keep... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about another slowdown in China? Economic growth in Emerging Asia picked up again in the first quarter of the year, thanks largely to stronger export demand. The slowdown that now appears to be underway in China is unlikely to derail... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Figures released today show that Malaysia’s economy gained strong momentum in Q1. Robust global demand, loose monetary policy and a recovery in energy prices should continue to support growth in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets fall, but economic fallout should be limited Political developments in the US and Brazil have led to sizeable falls in EM currencies and equities today but the economic implications for EMs are likely to be limited. Even in Brazil itself, it’s... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Figures released today show Thailand’s economy started 2017 on a solid note. We expect growth to pick up a little further in the coming quarters, helped by robust external demand, supportive fiscal... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Moon defuse Korea’s demographic “time bomb”? One of the biggest challenges facing South Korea’s newly elected president, Moon Jae-in, is the country’s dreadful demographic outlook. Although there are steps the new government could take to boost... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Malaysia to stay on hold for the rest of the year Despite the recent spike in inflation, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect BNM to keep interest rates steady... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, pause unlikely to last The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold, but a combination of rapid credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency suggests further tightening is only a matter of... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) Indonesia recorded another quarter of disappointing growth in the first quarter of this year, with GDP expanding by 5.0% y/y. Looking ahead, with commodity prices likely to stay relatively depressed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM survey data overstating the pace of recovery The EM business and consumer surveys seem to have overstated the strength of the hard EM activity figures over the past year or so. That said, the fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in April provides... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will Korea’s election put the economy on a new path? In addition to the growing geopolitical crisis on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea’s next president, who will be elected on 9 th May, will face a mounting number of economic challenges, including... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
