Asia Economics Update Indonesia rate cut likely by end of the year With the Fed possibly poised to hike interest rates later in the day, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to keep its key policy rate on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise. Going forward, with inflation... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry in the doldrums Industrial production growth in the emerging world remains very weak, with our aggregate measure of EM industrial output expanding by just 2.2% y/y in the three months to July – the slowest pace since... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2) We would be wary of reading too much into today’s GDP figures from Sri Lanka,which suggest the economy accelerated sharply in the second quarter. The country’s statistical office has recently rebased... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Run-up to Bihar election a bellwether for reform appetite India’s increasingly decentralised system means that state elections such as the upcoming vote in Bihar have a bearing on economic policy. Perhaps more significant, the need to campaign at the local... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further easing in Thailand can’t be ruled out yet The Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.5% today, undoubtedly with an eye on the US Fed’s rate meeting this week. But with the economy still in deflation and struggling for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of bright spots With good news thin on the ground in the emerging world, it’s reassuring that there are at least a few emerging markets (EMs) where growth is holding up well. Most notably, the economies of Central... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia follow the Fed? The first rate hike in the US looks set to take place sooner rather than later. But local factors, not theactions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine the next moves by Asia’s central banks. 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Another look at the EM export slowdown Much of the gloom currently hanging over the EM world is warranted, but there are reasons to think that the slump in exports, at least, will start to reverse toward the end of this year. That said... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weakness of consumer price inflation in August should be the clinching factor in determining whether or not the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates at its meeting later this month. 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation dropped sharply in August to its lowest rate since the series began. The WPI rate may not have as much of a bearing on policymaking as the CPI rate, but the fact that it has... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan’s central bank has lost sight of the medium term The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) responded to the latest fall in headline inflation by cutting interest rates again over the weekend. The SBP’s aggressive series of rate cuts during the last year... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Why have exports been so weak? The slump in commodity prices accounts for most of the decline in Asian exports this year, even in countries which are not major commodity exporters. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia to hold rates amid balancing act The decision to keep interest rates on hold today at 3.25% reflects the difficult balancing act facing the Malaysian central bank (BNM) as it continues to grapple with the problems caused by slowing... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fresh commodity price weakness weighs on EM exports EM exports fell sharply in July on the back of the renewed drop in global commodity prices. And the early data suggest that things are unlikely to have improved last month either. 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Financial stability risks to keep Bank of Korea on hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today as fears over the possible implications of Fed tightening offset worries about the recent weakness of the economy... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
