Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) We expect the slowdown in GDP growth in Q3 to continue over the coming quarters as the economy faces headwinds from tighter monetary policy and a weakening external environment. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) Indonesia’s GDP growth slowed from 5.3% y/y in Q2 to 5.2% in Q3, and looks set to slow a little further over the coming quarters due to a combination of tighter monetary policy and weaker export... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Short-term pain, long-term gain for EM equities? Although the gap between the valuations of equities in emerging and developed markets has widened recently, and is now quite large by historical standards, this is no guarantee that the former will... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP boost to Asia, rate hikes unlikely in Korea The announcement that the Trans-Pacific Partnership will come into force on 30th December is important in a number of ways. Not only should it provide a boost to growth prospects across parts of Asia... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The October PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost further momentum at the start of Q4. Meanwhile, the weakness in new export orders supports our view that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Crisis in Sri Lanka is bad news for the economy The current political crisis in Sri Lanka, which has seen the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, comes at a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will low valuations cause EM equities to outperform? Although the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities have tumbled compared to those of their developed market (DM) peers, we are not convinced that they will deliver much higher returns over the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly No quick fix for Pakistan, Korea slowdown to persist Pakistan this week secured a US$6bn loan from Saudi Arabia and has plans to court Chinese money. These deals may help paper over the cracks, but they won’t solve the economy’s balance of payments... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q3) Korea’s economy struggled for momentum in Q3, and we think that this is set to continue – mounting external and domestic headwinds suggest growth is likely to ease back over the coming quarters. 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reform hopes in Malaysia, tourists shun Thailand The election of former Malaysian deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim to the parliamentary seat of Port Dickinson last weekend bodes well for reform prospects in the country. A slump in Chinese... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and IMF start talks, equities set for further falls The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde this week set the tone for what are likely to be tough negotiations with Pakistan when she said the Fund would require Pakistan to be “absolutely transparent”... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy tightening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today increased the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a tightening of its policy stance. But with growth... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
