Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Vietnam trade agreement eases worst-case fears The newly agreed US–Vietnam trade agreement should help preserve Vietnam’s competitive edge in the region, but the overall impact will also depend on how other countries in Asia are treated. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the... 4th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China-US trade rerouting in Trump’s crosshairs Given its trade truce with the US, China isn’t at much risk of being hit with higher duties when the 90-day pause on Liberation Day tariffs ends next week. But Trump’s trade deals with the UK and... 4th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Trade negotiations go down to the wire The temporary pause on the 24% “reciprocal” tariff Trump imposed on imports from Japan in April is due to expire next week. As things stand, a deal with Japan looks unlikely and it’s possible that... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (May 25) The strong pickup in household spending in May is likely overstating the momentum behind private consumption. As a result, we don’t think it will stand in the way of the RBA loosening policy settings... 4th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Stretched affordability will limit housing rebound The fact that the RBA isn’t cutting interest rates during a housing downturn won’t limit the rebound in house prices, but the extremely stretched level of affordability will do so. Even though we... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
APAC Commercial Property Update Six key calls for Asia-Pacific Commercial Real Estate We are forecasting a slower recovery in APAC real estate markets than in any other cycle, the extent of which would also make the region a global laggard. Within the region, we also expect a further... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Taiwan dollar? The Taiwan dollar has appreciated sharply against the US dollar in recent months but, for a host of reasons, the central bank seems now to be less tolerant of further currency strength. Even without... 2nd July 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q2 2025) The gradual recovery in property values underway in Europe is unlikely to be pushed off track by tariff developments this year, but we think values still have further to fall in the US and APAC as... 2nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economy still struggling, more easing likely The latest batch of monthly activity and inflation data for Korea support the case for further monetary policy easing by the central bank. We are expecting another 50bps of cuts before the end of the... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
