China Economics Update

PBOC turns less dovish despite deflation concerns

One might have thought that fading concern about the exchange rate and growing concern about deflation would provide the perfect moment for the PBOC to step up monetary easing. But the Bank’s latest...

2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Thailand: fresh political turmoil to weigh on economy

Thailand faces renewed political uncertainty after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was today suspended. This will undermine consumer and business sentiment and complicate efforts to agree a free...

1st July 2025 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

Presales ban wouldn’t support home prices much

China is moving toward ending its decades-old system of “presales” for newly-built residential property. This would reduce risks for homebuyers. But hopes that the change would provide a material...

1st July 2025 · 6 mins read

India Economics Update

Asia Manufacturing PMIs (June)

The June PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued. With worries about growth having taken precedence over those about inflation, we think most central banks in the region will continue to...

1st July 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia's housing rebound has further to run

House prices rose the most since last year in June and with the RBA set to cut interest rates much further, the housing market will continue to gain momentum. However, affordability will remain quite...

1st July 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Tankan (Q2 25)

The Q2 Tankan survey showed that the economy is holding up well despite trade tensions, which supports our view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year.

1st July 2025 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds

We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be...

30th June 2025 · 45 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Asia Chart Pack (June 2025)

Trade tensions and Trump tariffs remain a key risk for Asia (especially for Vietnam, given its reliance on US demand). That said, the region could also benefit from trade diversion as US firms shift...

30th June 2025 · 0 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (June 2025)

The Caixin services PMI released today adds to evidence that growth in the sector slowed in June. But the pickup in manufacturing more than offset this drag, pointing to a rebound in overall activity...

30th June 2025 (Updated 3rd July 2025) · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (May 25)

30th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania’s new government, Israel-Iran ceasefire

The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors, but we think the public debt ratio will stay on a sharp...

27th June 2025 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Mixed messaging on India-US trade deal prospects

President Trump's talking up of the prospects of a "very big" trade deal between India and the US this week are at odds with recent reports which suggest that India's politically sensitive...

27th June 2025 · 3 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (June 25)

China’s economy slowed in May, with US tariff starting to take a toll on exports. And while consumer spending has picked up recently, that’s largely been driven by temporary subsidies from the...

27th June 2025 · 0 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Korean consumer boost, political trouble in Thailand

While retail sales in Korea remain just over 2% below pre-pandemic levels, there are growing signs the worst is behind us. Consumer sentiment has rebounded sharply following the recent presidential...

27th June 2025 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: US-China “deal” moves forward but risks remain

The trade “deal” reached in Geneva and London has now been finalised and signed. The exact terms have yet to be made public but appear to be limited in scope and still leave economic ties in far worse...

27th June 2025 · 6 mins read