Capital Economics says strong wage gains mean the Bank of Japan will likely hike rates in March Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, discusses the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. 18th March 2024 · CNBC
Asia Economics Update Would Vietnam win a second trade war? Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal stimulus, even as consumer spending made little headway. We expect the recovery to... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: strong growth, but falling inflation Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto tide should lift wage growth among small firms This year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hikes since 1991 and we estimate that participating workers will receive a base pay hike of around 3.5%. While it’s mostly the large... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly #3 in 2026 The key takeaway from our Q2 Outlook is that, while growth is likely to slow a touch, India will remain a global outperformer over the coming years. That will set the stage for India to overtake Japan... 15th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Are China's equities finally set for a lasting rally? This Global Markets Focus looks at whether Chinese equities’ recent rally heralds the start of something larger and more sustained. It argues that they could continue to do well over the next year or... 15th March 2024 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook World-beating growth set to continue India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third... 13th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Negative rates and YCC will end this month With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting... 13th March 2024 · 11 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) Headline consumer price inflation held steady at 5.1% y/y in February and looking ahead, we think it will take a few more months before it reaches the RBI’s 4% long-term target. That suggests to us... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA on course for rate cuts in August We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably... 12th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The yen also rises (finally)? The surge of the Japanese yen ahead of next week’s BoJ policy announcement could still prove yet another false dawn. But with the monetary policy divergence that has driven the yen down over the past... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates 19th March 2024, 8:00AM GMT Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implicati
