FX Markets Update

How worried should we be about the renminbi & yen?

We continue to think that policymakers in China and Japan will do enough to keep their currencies from weakening much further, but the risk of a break lower in one, or both, is increasing.

27th March 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Prop from stimulus to be short-lived

China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

27th March 2024 · 15 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Still buoyed by policy support

Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow...

27th March 2024 · 3 mins read

RBI Watch

Policy pivot creeping closer

We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Friday 5 th April. Further ahead, we think the central bank will start cutting rates in...

27th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer

Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very...

27th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Feb. 24)

Headline Inflation in February once again came in below the expectations of both the analyst consensus and the RBA. But trimmed mean inflation unexpectedly saw a leg up, which could give the RBA pause...

27th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (March 2024)

Our Emerging Asia Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to struggle in the near term as weak...

26th March 2024 · 0 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Economics Update

Sri Lanka: easing cycle has further to go

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka today cut interest rates by a further 50bps and hinted at further rate cuts to come. With inflationary pressures under control and the economic recovery struggling, more...

26th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Shrinking BoJ balance sheet won’t have big impact

While the Bank of Japan’s JGB holdings have started to shrink and will continue to do so now that Yield Curve Control is over, we think that the normalisation of the Bank’s balance sheet could take up...

26th March 2024 · 12 mins read

Capital Daily

A few more thoughts on the renminbi conundrum

Push-back from the authorities in China and Japan has stabilised their currencies against the US dollar today, and our base case remains that policymakers will prevent destabilising depreciations in...

25th March 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Quasi-dovish Fed can’t keep the dollar down for long

The US dollar has bounced back from its brief drop after the FOMC’s policy announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference, and is ending the week stronger across the board. To some extent that is...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Policy support a temporary prop to construction

Local government financing vehicles are ramping up land purchases to build more public housing, while developers are being given more financing to accelerate work on unfinished projects. This may...

22nd March 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Political risk in Vietnam; SBP’s hawkish hold

One of Vietnam’s key appeals to foreign investors is its political stability relative to other low-income countries in the region. Given this, the unexplained ousting of President Vo Van Thuong of...

22nd March 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators

We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the...

22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read