FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidates as yields edge higher across the board The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update What would an end to the property crisis look like? Resolution of China’s property crisis would result in residential sales being substantially higher than today. Sales could rise by a third. But we wouldn’t expect prices to increase by much, if at all... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bank deposit exodus, chip self-sufficiency The recent slowdown in deposit growth does not signal a recovery in risk appetite among firms and households. On the contrary, it is being driven by their reluctance to borrow and their preference for... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD to outperform other G10 currencies We think the kiwi and the aussie strength will continue over the next couple of years as we expect they will be among the last developed economies to start an easing cycle. 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore slowdown, Thailand’s weak recovery GDP growth in Singapore slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, and the outlook for the rest of 2024 is very poor, with a weakening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and subdued global... 24th May 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is PM Modi on the backfoot? As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Upcoming Shunto will thwart further policy tightening The recent sharp slowdown in underlying inflation isn't inconsistent with the Bank of Japan's view that most of the previous strength in inflation was driven by an import cost that is now fading... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weaker consumption would lift risk of earlier rate cut Whereas the Reserve Bank of Australia expects the household savings rate to rise over the course of this year, we think that households will lift real consumption alongside a likely rebound in real... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Spillovers from the rally in Chinese equities We think equities in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region may benefit most from improving sentiment towards China in the near term. But we think that economic / market exposures to the AI revolution, not to... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to cut interest rates in October The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and appeared to indicate that interest rates would not be cut until it was confident that inflation would fall back to target. Given our... 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update China’s threat to Indian manufacturing India has made impressive progress in raising its share of global high-end electronics exports over the past few years. But, worryingly, it has failed to capture any additional market share in the... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (May 2024) The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, of more interest will be the tone of the central bank’s statement and Governor Rhee’s press... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
