Asia-Pacific

Asia Economics Weekly

Vietnam: Rates to end the year lower, not higher

The risk of monetary tightening in Vietnam has risen over the past few weeks due to concerns about the currency and inflation. We still think a rate hike is unlikely. But even if the central bank (SBV...

31st May 2024 7 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Key highlights from May

This Monthly looks at some of the key highlights from the Climate Economics service in May, including our coverage of US tariffs on Chinese-made green technology and recent price movements in the EU...

31st May 2024 3 mins read

India Economics Weekly

What to watch for in a momentous week

India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that...

31st May 2024 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Lower education costs could boost fertility rate

While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage...

31st May 2024 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA

We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers...

31st May 2024 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (May 2024)

The jump in the Caixin services PMI means that the survey data for May now suggest economic momentum remained fairly robust last month. We think strength in exports, a step-up in fiscal support and...

31st May 2024 (Updated 5th June 2024) 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 24)

On balance, the modest decline in industrial production and the rebound in retail sales in April point to a decent rebound in GDP this quarter.

31st May 2024 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24)

May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate.

31st May 2024 2 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (May 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of...

30th May 2024 1 min read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Growth holding up, but on unstable footing

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support...

30th May 2024 3 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024)

Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to...

30th May 2024 1 min read

RBI Watch

Change in policy stance looks imminent

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the...

30th May 2024 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Apr. 24)

29th May 2024 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Have JGB yields found their sweet spot?

The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly...

28th May 2024 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...