Commodities Weekly Relative calm unlikely to last In a relatively quiet week, oil prices consolidated their recent gains as the consensus swung round to our view that the lows recorded in Q1 would prove to be the turning point. However, powerful... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should pick up Having fallen sharply since late-2014, we expect US steel prices to stabilise and pick up over the course of this year owing to resilient domestic demand. That said, our forecast also assumes that the... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar. 15) World Steel Association (WSA) data for March show a 2.7% m/m decline in global steel output, with falls in most of the largest producers. However, some recovery can be expected in coming months... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further slowdown in China will not stifle growth elsewhere China’s growth rate is set to slow a little further in the coming years. This will have a significant knock-on effect on some other emerging economies, but we think its overall impact on growth in the... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks only tell half the story Stock movements and prices should have an inverse relationship, but this has not beenthe case for many of the base metals over the last month. There are, of course, otherdrivers of the price... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can the rally in lead prices be sustained? The boost to lead prices from the recent squeeze on stock availability may prove temporary. That said, it has exposed the underlying tightness in the market which should be a key factor supporting... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Four and a half reasons not to worry about China’s slowdown The relative weakness of China’s Q1 GDP and March activity data has reinforced concerns about the impact of softer demand on global commodity markets. But in contrast to the consensus, we remain... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weaker dollar provides a breather Commodity prices have generally risen since the middle of March, supported by a slightly weaker dollar. However, concerns about Chinese demand have weighed on the prices of some commodities... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil shrugs off Iran deal A preliminary deal between Iran and the West saw oil prices fall sharply early this week, but they quickly rebounded as it became apparent that the return of Iranian oil exports would be delayed until... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prices searching for direction The GSCI industrial metals index has risen slightly since the end of February, but there have been some large price moves in individual metals. The lack of clarity on China’s future demand appears to... 10th April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Indonesia Tin Exports (Mar. 15) Indonesia’s tin exports rose strongly in March, but we expect lower volumes in coming months owing to a self-imposed export quota. This will be one factor supporting our forecast that tin prices will... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Calm before the (next) storm? The past week saw relatively little movement in commodity prices compared to the volatility earlier in the year, as the surge in the dollar ran out of steam. The biggest gainers – notably wheat and... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Pain before gain for aluminium prices The aluminium market appears to be undergoing a fundamental shift this year with falling stocks and lower price premiums. The incentive for investors to hold aluminium stocks is waning. In this Metals... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities remain in thrall to the dollar The ebb and flow of sentiment towards the US currency continues to be a key driver of commodity markets and especially gold and silver, keeping prices sensitive to the latest US economic data and... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does an iron ore price of $50 mean for Australia? While it is certainly not good news, a fall in the iron ore price to US$50 a tonne or below is neither here nor there when compared with the drop from $US130 to $US70 last year. What’s more, the full... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Middle East tensions boost oil prices A variety of factors have lifted commodity prices this past week. Renewed Middle East fears following events in Yemen boosted oil and gold. Copper prices continued their gradual recovery, helped by... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
