Commodities Update Investors increasingly negative on commodities Investor positioning in the futures markets for both metals and agriculturals has taken a downward turn recently. While the picture is not uniform across commodities, we think that investor selling... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Higher loadings won’t stop palladium prices falling We have revised up our estimates of palladium demand, despite weak car sales, due to higher loadings in China and Europe. We still expect the price of palladium to fall back from $1,310 per ounce... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Recent drags on car sales are set to unwind Car sales in the world’s largest markets have slumped since mid-2018. In this Metals Watch we explain our forecast for sales to begin recovering later this year. 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) April’s aluminium production data and the recent closure of Chinese alumina refineries suggest that the rebound in global primary supply growth that we had expected may be postponed. Despite this, we... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics will be a factor in OPEC’s output policy Softer April activity and spending data out of China and negative sentiment surrounding the impasse in US-China trade talks weighed on the prices of many metals this week. We had always suspected that... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor Our in-house proxies of growth in China’s demand for industrial metals have generally risen in the first third of 2019, fuelled by a surge in construction. Despite government stimulus this year, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Investor gloom set to deepen Industrial metals prices have slid in recent weeks and despite investor positions approaching a three-year trough, we think that further investor selling will contribute to even lower metals prices... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher tariffs do not change our already bearish view A total breakdown in US-China trade talks would undoubtedly be a further negative for the prices of most industrial metals. However, regardless of the latest tariff increase, we had already expected a... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Risk appetite to be the key driver of prices Our forecast that global economic growth will stay lower for longer suggests that the recent revival in industrial metals prices will prove short-lived. However, the prices of gold and silver could... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Mar.) The strength of global steel production in the first quarter looks unsustainable given that we think global economic activity will remain subdued. What’s more, high iron ore prices are undermining... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update LME lead prices to fall, but still outperform The price of lead has been lower on the LME than on the Shanghai exchange for more than a year now and it has fallen this year while the prices of other metals, most notably its sister metal zinc... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Mar.) Power problems and weak prices have held back aluminium output so far this year. But we think that rising capacity and lower raw material costs will cause production to rise in the coming months. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Short-term pain, long-term gain We think that the prices of most commodities will fall this year as global economic growth remains weak and investor risk aversion returns. While policy in China has become more accommodative, it is... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Copper rally: too far, too soon Copper prices have approached 10-month highs recently on supply woes and optimism that growth in China will rebound, but we think that this rally will reverse as China’s recovery falls short of... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
