Metals Watch Copper’s “price premium” to grow In this Metals Watch, we introduce our measure of the “fundamental” copper price. A key takeaway is that, while we expect the traded price of copper to recover some lost ground by year-end, there is... 30th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why supply cuts don’t matter (yet) Several producers outside China have reduced operations in the past week, most notably in Latin America. But much like policy support, lower supply will do little to boost prices so long as measures... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Global steel output was reasonably resilient in February. But that follows substantial downward revisions to the January figures. And while policy support – particularly in China – may boost steel... 23rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Feb.) Despite alarm bells ringing for global aluminium demand, output growth continued to gather pace in February. This will only have added to the piles of unwanted inventory and is another reason to... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still some way from the bottom Commodity prices tumbled this week, echoing moves in other financial markets. Oil was among the worst performers as Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will ramp up output from April, after... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Don’t rule out further price falls February was another poor month for industrial metals. However, prices fell by less than in January and policy loosening seems to have stabilised prices more recently. That said, the outbreak of COVID... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Prices still searching for the bottom Commodity prices continued to fall in February as the coronavirus, which started in China, spread to most other regions of the world and sparked fears of a slowdown in global economic activity. We... 4th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Revising our forecasts as COVID-19 effects linger We had previously assumed that any coronavirus-related hit to metals demand in Q1 would be made up in subsequent quarters. But that now seems unlikely. As a result, we are lowering our year-end price... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) China continued to prop up global steel production growth in January, though output growth in the US and Japan also improved. However, January’s data fail to fully reflect the impact of measures to... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) After falling for the first time in a decade in 2019, global aluminium production started 2020 on a better footing. In contrast to other metals, we don’t think coronavirus containment measures will... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Perception the key to cobalt’s future There is potential for cobalt’s end-use in electric vehicle batteries to grow rapidly. However, concerns over the concentration of cobalt supply in the DRC have held back demand so far. Several auto... 18th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Supply cutbacks in China look increasingly likely Measures to contain the spread of coronavirus in China have already dealt a heavy blow to metals demand. But the longer China’s economy remains part-suspended, the greater the chance that supply is... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
