Commodities Update Aluminium and steel: higher tariffs → bigger impacts The existing tariffs on aluminium and steel have already raised metals prices in the US relative to elsewhere, and it is logical to assume that the announced doubling of tariff rates will only... 2nd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly On, off, and on again tariffs is a recipe for volatility Commodity prices have swung alongside the tariff news flow this week. While there is plenty of uncertainty around the implications of this week's developments, we know that product-specific tariffs... 30th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Commodities in an age of tariffs Although the global tariff environment now appears to be heading towards a far more benign environment than had appeared likely a month or so ago, it still represents a demand shock that will prove a... 28th May 2025 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update Uneven hit to metals prices from slowing global trade Less favourable conditions for global goods production and trade will be yet another factor weighing on demand for industrial metals and supports our view that prices will fall by more than the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How will Australia weather the China slowdown? Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly... 27th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Commodities Update Iberian blackout puts spotlight on grid infrastructure It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 25) UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but a higher risk environment will drag on investment volumes. Yield compression will also be limited, and... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Trump and Africa: the story so far The direct trade impact of US import tariffs on Africa is likely to be limited, but there could be more harmful indirect effects via weaker growth in other key trading partners, lower commodity prices... 10th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities escape firing line, but caught in crossfire The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Copper’s COMEX “crocodile” won’t snap shut Having risen to a record high this week, the spread between copper prices on the COMEX in the US and the London Metal Exchange (LME) is set to persist, and could conceivably even widen further in the... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Metals tariffs in full effect; oil faces demand headwinds US steel and aluminium producers have different scopes to respond to the tariffs implemented this week, which is why we expect the price premium for aluminium in the US to persist for longer than... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
