Asset Allocation The asset allocation implications of China’s slowdown The further slowdown we expect in China would probably be a headwind for some “risky” assets that are particularly sensitive to its economic cycle. It also informs our view that China’s sovereign... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Metals Outlook At the start of a downswing in prices Although the prices of industrial metals have picked up again recently, we still expect them to be falling over the next year or so. Underpinning this view are our forecasts for economic growth to... 4th August 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to weaker metals demand China’s July survey data suggest that manufacturing and construction activity have continued to cool, which supports our view that a slowdown in China will weigh heavily on industrial metals prices. 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Supply disruptions remain a key risk The recent bounce in commodity prices continued this week, helped by the ongoing depreciation in the US dollar and a series of risks on the supply side which are rearing their head. Most notably, a... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Outlook Price rallies to give way soon to broad-based declines We think that the widespread rallies in commodity prices from their pandemic-induced lows are now close to, or in some cases already past, their peak. Most notably, we anticipate that Q3 will be as... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Pandemic rebound peaks but recovery story still intact The initial post-pandemic resurgence is nearing its zenith, but strong policy support and limited private sector debt should allow most economies to grow at a healthy pace over the next two years. The... 28th July 2021 · 45 mins read
Commodities Delta risks coming to the fore Oil prices have been on something of a round trip this week – falling at the start of the week as OPEC+ finally agreed to a new output agreement and the ongoing spread of the Delta variant fuelled... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Growth in global steel production remained in double digits in June, but this largely reflects the low base for comparison from last year. Meanwhile, government-imposed environmental controls in China... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium output growth softened in June, largely due to power cuts in China’s key aluminium-producing province of Yunnan. But these curbs have started to be relaxed in recent weeks, which... 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Saudi-UAE compromise points to lower oil prices Reports that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have reached a compromise deal over oil production quotas support our forecast that oil prices will end the year lower. Admittedly, the deal is yet to be agreed... 16th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Beginning of the end for copper rally After reaching an all-time high in May, the price of copper has since come off the boil. And we think it will fall further over the next eighteen months or so, as a combination of weaker economic... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil to outperform in Q3 We expect strong growth in oil demand this quarter as virus-related travel restrictions are lifted in most of the largest consuming countries. At the same time, supply will remain relatively... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Detailed China trade data highlight supply risks The breakdown of China’s trade data for May shows that the recovery in imports of scrap and tin ore has hit a few stumbling blocks. Were these issues to persist, they could help to put a floor under... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Making sense of the rise in exchange stocks Exchange stocks of base metals have risen this year, which usually suggests that markets are well supplied. But much of the recent build in stocks has been opportunistic and driven by financial... 29th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Rebound in prices likely to be short-lived Most commodity prices recouped some of their post-FOMC losses this week. Investor concerns surrounding Fed tightening have seemingly eased, which weighed on the dollar. At the same time, news that a... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) Growth in global steel production is still running high in year-on-year terms owing to the low base a year earlier. However, daily production in May was somewhat lower than April, as output in China... 22nd June 2021 · 2 mins read
