Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global aluminium output fell by 4.5% y/y in the first month of 2022. A combination of high power prices in Europe and the New Year festival in China dragged down refined aluminium production. Looking... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices still have room to fall The recent agreement between the US and Japan will allow the majority of Japan’s steel exports to enter the US without levies. We expect this increased supply will combine with slower growth in demand... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities cannot continue to shrug off headwinds Growth in China’s economy has slowed sharply and US interest rate expectations have jumped but commodity prices continue to hold up well. In some cases, constrained supply explains the resilience in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s refined output to remain strong China’s refined metals output mostly rose in 2021, despite power rationing in Q4. We expect output growth to continue in 2022, which is a factor underpinning our view that metals prices will fall. 9th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Hawkish Fed a headwind for commodity prices The US Fed announced at its meeting this week that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and hinted that a hike was coming as soon as March. The US dollar strengthened, with the DXY... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Outlook Prices to succumb to weaker demand before long Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in... 27th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Commodities Outlook Sky-high commodity prices on borrowed time Supply shortages have directly pushed up the prices of energy commodities and have indirectly raised prices of other commodities by boosting production costs. We think this will remain the case for at... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Commodities Weekly Deteriorating risk appetite adds to price headwinds Despite falls in the prices of most other risky assets, including equities, commodities held up well this week. The prices of equities and commodities tracked each other relatively closely throughout... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Dec.) Although global aluminium output fell in y/y terms in December, it still grew strongly over 2021. The lifting of power restrictions in China has helped increase global output despite a reduction in... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly A good start to a bad year for commodity prices Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Prices to come off the boil in 2022 After a stellar run in 2020-21, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back this year as economic activity slows, notably in China, and supply bottlenecks start to ease. Drop-In: Neil... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022 While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
