Commodities Update Rebound in China’s PMIs likely to be a one-off We think that the recovery in China’s PMIs in June was driven by the lifting of virus-related restrictions rather than an improvement in underlying economic conditions. Accordingly, we think that... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Non-energy prices only have so much more to fall Most commodity prices fell this week as demand concerns picked up due to ongoing monetary policy tightening by major central banks. Speaking to the US Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, Federal... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) Global steel production continued to pick up in May, led by higher output in India and China, which more than offset the ongoing decline in Europe’s production. The rise in input costs, efforts to... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Codelco strike threat, Chile and the copper price A threatened strike at Chile’s copper giant, Codelco, could knock as much as 0.3%-pts off quarterly GDP growth for every week that workers are on strike and worsen the country’s balance of payments... 21st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that... 20th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply concerns to dominate in gas markets European natural gas prices surged this week on renewed supply concerns, as Russia once again cut gas supplies to Europe and the US Freeport LNG export facility closed for six months. The huge price... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lockdowns are only part of China’s subdued demand The supply risks associated with the war in Ukraine have not gone away, but there has been more market attention in recent weeks on the outlook for commodities demand. In the very near term, the... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Weaker demand to drag on EU steel prices Softer demand for steel in Europe has dragged prices lower recently, despite production in the region being constrained by high production costs. We expect prices to fall a little further to €900 per... 9th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply concerns to dominate for some time yet Energy and agricultural prices continued to rise in May as concerns about supply more than offset signs that demand, at least for energy, could soften. We expect prices to remain historically high but... 7th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Weak China demand won’t hold back oil prices Despite a rise in May, China’s PMIs still point to weak Chinese demand, which will continue to weigh on industrial metals prices. However, the war in Ukraine will remain the bigger driver of energy... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for clarity on the EU’s oil import embargo A persistent theme in energy markets is uncertainty about the outlook for the EU’s imports of energy from Russia. It does appear that some sort of embargo of oil imports will be announced, maybe as... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel price to fall, despite reduced output We expect China’s steel output to fall a little this year in line with government objectives. But we think that subdued demand, notably from the steel-intensive construction sector, will lead to lower... 27th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) Global steel production fell in y/y terms in April, as all major producers bar India recorded declines. High energy costs and soft demand for steel are both likely to persist for much of the remainder... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Easing of lockdown lifts metals prices, for now… The prices of many industrial metals (IM) picked up this week on news of an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. However, we think weak demand and improved supply in China will send IM prices... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this... 20th May 2022 · 2 mins read
