Emerging Markets Economics Update Winners and losers from the latest jump in oil The latest rise in oil prices has eased fiscal concerns in a number of EM oil producers but only at the expense of increased balance of payments concerns in some EM oil consumers, notably Turkey and... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why OPEC won’t prolong its cuts The rise in oil prices, fall in crude inventories and surge in non-OPEC production, especially in the US, mean that OPEC is likely to gradually increase output next year rather than extend its cuts. 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy can cope with higher oil prices We think the recent rise in oil prices is likely to be reversed. But even if prices rose steadily to $100pb, there would be little fallout for global growth, despite an increase in headline inflation. 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi talk of $100pb oil doesn’t signal shift in oil policy The recent jump in oil prices to $75pb has been fuelled in part by reports that the Saudi authorities have expressed a desire for prices of $100pb. But we don’t think a fundamental shift in Saudi oil... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price surge having only limited impact on dollar The recent resurgence in oil prices should be good news for Canada but, since it is partly due to a temporary spike in geopolitical tensions, we expect prices to fall back later this year. Domestic... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update New (higher) forecast for oil prices Given the rise in potential risks to supply, stronger-than-expected demand in Q1 and slumping output in Venezuela, we are revising up our end-2018 forecasts for the prices of Brent and WTI. But we... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Too soon to worry about supply Commodity prices have generally had a strong start to the year, boosted in particular by risks to supply. However, in many cases, supply has not been disrupted yet and the worst fears of supply... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slipped last week as net imports slumped. But the big surprise was a jump in demand for gasoline, to a new record. However, we would caution that such large moves in the... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How worried should we be about rising tensions? At least part of this week’s increase in oil prices is justified by the sudden escalation in tensions in the Middle East and resulting risk to oil supplies, either from sanctions or damage to oil... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Geopolitical fears rise, higher oil price offers some relief Mounting tensions surrounding the conflicts in Syria and Yemen have rattled financial markets in the MENA region, but the associated rally in oil prices should limit the economic fallout for the Gulf... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC revised up its forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018 again and estimated that the market was in a surplus in the first quarter. Admittedly, the cartel still expects the market to be in deficit... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports rebounded and production rose again. The recent increase in prices is likely to encourage even more US production, which should weigh on prices... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Geopolitical tensions boost prices Commodity prices rebounded at the start of April on the back of concerns over US sanctions on Russia and escalating tensions in the Middle East, despite the dollar being flat. Indeed, only the... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices vulnerable to a shift in investor sentiment Near-record non-commercial net-long futures positions in the oil market mean that prices could fall sharply if investor sentiment sours. 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
