Global Economics Update Should we fear oil at $100pb? While we expect oil prices to fall back from their four-year high, a continued rise to $100pb would not deal a big blow to global growth. But it would exacerbate current account pressures in some EMs. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Oil at a four-year high Oil prices have surged in the last month as the market priced in a slump in Iran’s production due to the re-imposition of US sanctions. However, there are now clear signs of weaker demand, which... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the recent jump in oil prices mean for Asia? The biggest impact of a period of sustained higher oil prices would be in India and the Philippines, whose current account deficits would be pushed even more into the red, putting further downward... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged last week, in large part as a result of higher net imports. We think we could see further stock builds in the coming weeks amid signs of softer demand and weak exports. 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Energy investment unlikely to surge The recent run-up in oil prices, yesterday’s announcement of a new massive LNG project and the coming expansion in the capacity to export crude oil by rail all seem to bode well for energy investment... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does that latest jump in oil prices mean for EMs? The rise in oil prices to $85pb brings most major oil producers’ budgets close to balance (and in a few cases a large surplus) and could open the door for fiscal policy to be loosened in a few... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities rally, but too good to last Commodity prices jumped in the second half of the month despite a stronger US dollar. Concerns about Iranian production and news that OPEC didn’t increase output at one of its technical meetings meant... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of higher oil prices We don’t expect the recent jump in oil prices to be sustained but if we are wrong and prices stay at $85pb, annual export revenues in the Gulf would be $200bn higher than in 2017. Governments would... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil at $85 will prove unsustainable The price of Brent crude nudged $85 per barrel today, reflecting concerns about the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran. However, we remain of the view that supply from other OPEC and non-OPEC... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recovery in EM commodity currencies unlikely to last Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply prospects take centre stage Supply-side developments were the key driver of most commodity markets this week, but they are pushing prices in opposing directions. In the oil market, supply concerns sent Brent crude to a 46-month... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose as demand from refineries weakened and US production ticked up. Gasoline stocks also rose, despite lower refinery runs, underpinning our assessment that growth in US... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities join in “relief” rally The prices of most commodities rose this week as part of a more general rebound in financial markets. Although both the US and China announced another round of tariffs, there was some relief that the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand growth to soften Growth in global oil demand looks set to ease in 2019, driven by the expected economic slowdowns in China and the US, along with subdued consumption in Europe. High oil prices and mounting... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
