Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A drop in refining activity and a further increase in net imports saw a third consecutive weekly build in crude stocks, which are now at the highest since September 2017. An unexpected drawdown in the... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Outlook Calling time on the oil price rally Our forecast of sluggish global growth, further increases in US output and a rise in investor risk aversion suggests that the recent rally in oil prices will prove short-lived. In contrast, we think... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM currency outlook poor regardless of oil prices Despite the 35% surge in oil prices this year, some of the EM currencies traditionally regarded as “petro-currencies” have hardly risen. That is not all that surprising – the influence of oil prices... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Higher oil prices not a game changer for Norway We expect that higher oil prices will result in the Norges Bank raising interest rates twice this year and that the krone will outperform its Nordic peers. However, if we are proved correct in our... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A surge in net imports and the recovery in domestic production led crude stocks higher last week. However, we expect stocks to start to be drawn down in the coming weeks as the refinery maintenance... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A higher oil price forecast, but big picture unchanged We retain our long-held view that the price of oil will fall this year owing to weak global growth, further gains in US oil output and a rise in investor risk aversion. However, the scale of recent... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The collapse in US net imports drove crude oil stocks lower last week. We expect further slides in crude stocks as the maintenance season for refineries ends. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Short-term pain, long-term gain We think that the prices of most commodities will fall this year as global economic growth remains weak and investor risk aversion returns. While policy in China has become more accommodative, it is... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for the next big move It has been a relatively quiet week in most commodity markets, except for energy. Oil prices rose again, to over $70 per barrel for Brent, on news of military operations in Libya. However, we think at... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound to have only muted benefit The recent rebound in oil prices would normally be great news for the Canadian economy. But with regulatory concerns and capacity constraints likely to hold back investment in the energy sector and... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The decline in net imports was one reason why US crude stocks surged again this week. However, we don’t think that this trend will continue as we expect the maintenance season for refineries to end... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) As a group, OPEC is more than complying with its production quota, which helps to explain the recent rally in prices. That said, individual country compliance is quite poor with Saudi Arabia... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
