Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell, but this reflected solid demand from refineries. Implied product demand – particularly for gasoline – slumped, suggesting that the public were cautious about travel... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still... 22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell sharply last week for the fourth week in a row. That was despite demand for oil products dropping back in line with the seasonal average. Early indicators suggest... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Watch Commodity supply shortages set to ease in 2022 In this Commodities Watch, we take a closer look at commodity markets where supply shortages during the pandemic have been most severe and, consequently, where price increases have been most extreme... 21st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly More hawkish central banks may put a lid on prices It was a week of central bank decisions, culminating in ‘Super-Thursday’. The big picture is that central banks generally sounded more concerned about the rise in inflation, despite the ongoing spread... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Oil risk premium to fall in 2022, but risks abound Our estimates show a fall in the risk premium in the oil price since the emergence of the Omicron variant, as concerns over demand resurfaced. But the risk premium is still large, which adds weight to... 16th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks slumped last week as domestic demand strengthened and exports jumped. The decline in commercial stocks also came as strategic petroleum reserves fell. In the final weeks of... 15th December 2021 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC oil production increased in November, but once again by less than the group’s target. We think OPEC will continue to under-produce, but it should still account for a large share of the world’s... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Renewed surge in Chinese demand still seems unlikely We are sceptical that commodity demand growth in China is about to reignite, despite this week’s cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks and data showing surprisingly strong imports of... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks remained range-bound, but there were sizeable additions to stocks of petroleum products. That said, implied product demand remains solid, despite rising new COVID-19 infections... 8th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Energy market poses downside risk to the Gulf OPEC+ left the door open last week to change its oil output policy before the next meeting and, if output is raised more slowly or not at all, this would knock GDP growth back mechanically in the Gulf... 8th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack The net effect of Omicron on commodities is not clear Most commodity prices have fallen in the last week or so following the identification of Omicron – a new, and potentially more transmissible, strain of COVID-19. However, while commentary has... 7th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ sticks to its plan, no forecast change required Oil prices fell briefly on Thursday after OPEC+ decided to push ahead with its plan to raise oil output by 0.4m bpd a month, despite plunging oil prices since news of Omicron broke. Prices recovered... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
