UK Economics Update Rising LIBOR means that the MPC will have to work harder The recent renewed rise in interbank lending rates is an unwelcome development which means that the MPC will have to work harder to support economic activity. This supports our view that interest... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Corporates face tighter credit conditions across the board Attention has focused on the fact that credit conditions are tightening for even non-subprime households. However, corporates are suffering too. Not only have banks tightened their lending conditions... 4th March 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How hard will the credit crisis hit the City? We estimate that two thirds of the financial and business services (FBS) sector – or one fifth of the total economy - will be directly adversely affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We... 28th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor to confess to breaking the rules As Northern Rock’s £100bn of liabilities have already been taken onto the Government’s books, nationalisation does not change anything from an accounting point of view. However, it does mean that the... 18th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another blow to the public finances The decision by National Statistics to take Northern Rock onto the Government’s books may not necessarily break the Government’s Sustainable Investment Rule. Nonetheless, it clearly deals another blow... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Widening mortgage spreads a sign of tightening lending criteria The increases in tracker rates announced by some mortgage lenders over the past few days add to other evidence that the recent improvement in the situation in financial markets has not prevented a... 28th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock another fiscal pinch The probable nationalisation of Northern Rock is unlikely to lead to a clear breach of the Chancellor’s fiscal rules, which apply over the whole economic cycle. Nonetheless, it would further underline... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower LIBOR will not prevent interest rates falling to 4% The rapid fall in interbank interest rates towards more normal levels is a welcome development but does not negate the need for further cuts in official interest rates. The growing emergence that the... 11th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Have fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market? The popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years appears to have dampened the sensitivity of the housing market to rising interest rates. That is not to say that higher interest rates will not... 17th May 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Have fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market? The popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years appears to have dampened the sensitivity of the housing market to rising interest rates. That is not to say that higher interest rates will not... 17th May 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time? Unfolding developments in the US sub-prime mortgage market make uncomfortable reading. But do developments in the US have any implications for the UK mortgage market, which has also seen strong growth... 28th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time? Unfolding developments in the US sub-prime mortgage market make uncomfortable reading. But do developments in the US have any implications for the UK mortgage market, which has also seen strong growth... 28th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Onward and upward? The outlook for the UK's financial services sector (Q4 2006) The financial services sector has been one of the UK’s biggest success stories in recent years. Not only has it punched above its weight in driving GDP growth, but it has produced a significant trade... 4th October 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending? Households have certainly not had it easy over the last year or so. And one factor which presents a further threat to spending over the next few years is the projected shortfalls on endowment... 2nd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Endowment shortfalls - another drag on consumer spending? Households have certainly not had it easy over the last year or so. And one factor which presents a further threat to spending over the next few years is the projected shortfalls on endowment... 2nd August 2006 · 1 min read
