US Economics Update Lehmans – trying (and failing) to find a silver lining 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update King rules out quick fixes Bank of England Governor Mervyn King today underlined the message that there are no quick fixes for the problems in the UK mortgage and housing markets. This supports the view that further sharp falls... 11th September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update US GSE rescue provides no pointers for the UK The US government’s initially well-received intervention to support the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, has prompted debate over the case for similar sort of... 10th September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Drop in bank lending to prompt economy to contract in 2009 With banks’ balance sheets under pressure, UK bank lending is set to rise more slowly, if not fall outright. This will have significant adverse effects on the UK economy, which may already be in... 25th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Rock injection yet another fiscal worry The Government’s decision to inject extra capital into Northern Rock means that UK taxpayers will become shareholders in a troubled mortgage lender during what looks set to be the severest downturn in... 5th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Companies running out of cash The further sharp contraction in the amount of cash held on deposit by companies in June is yet another sign that the economic downturn is taking its toll on the corporate sector, suggesting that it... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Dent to bank capital to restrict lending growth UK banks are unlikely to raise enough capital to maintain their recent rates of lending. So even if they overcome their immediate liquidity problems, the credit crunch is unlikely to ease soon. 21st July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the credit crunch prompt a Swiss recession? nd’s dependence on the troubled financial services sector points to the risk of an extremely hard landing. We think that the consensus forecasts for Swiss GDP growth are much too complacent and see... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will the credit crunch prompt a Swiss recession? Switzerland’s dependence on the troubled financial services sector points to the risk of an extremely hard landing. We think that the consensus forecasts for Swiss GDP growth are much too complacent... 24th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Growing troubles in the Baltics add to Sweden’s problems Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on... 3rd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household bad debt cycle may already have turned Our measure of household bad debt suggests that the bad debt cycle may already have turned. Even if it hasn’t, it will not be long before debt problems become far more widespread. This is another... 2nd June 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable are Spanish banks to a property crash? The Spanish banking system looks in relatively good health compared to those of some other eurozone economies. Nonetheless, a major adjustment in the domestic property sector could still cause banks... 27th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank lending rates add to diverging growth trends Recent divergences in borrowing rates across different countries suggest that the impact of the credit crunch on households and corporates may be hitting some euro-zone economies harder than others. 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Has Asia really escaped the subprime crisis? The Asian financial system has so far proved to be fairly resilient to the US subprime crisis. Asian exposure to opaque asset-backed securities has been well below that of other (primarily Western)... 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Central banks still have a lot more work to do The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, published this morning, suggests that the worst of the global financial crisis may now be over. The immediate threat of a full-blown meltdown has... 1st May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing equity withdrawal to grind to a halt As the credit crunch bites and house prices fall, we expect housing (also known as mortgage) equity withdrawal (HEW) to dry up almost completely over the next couple of years. Although only a fraction... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
