UK Economics Focus Most labour shortages will probably be temporary The widely reported labour shortages should mostly prove temporary. While it may take 6-12 months before some of the underlying causes unwind, recruitment difficulties probably won’t have a long... 8th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Activity taking off as hospitality reopens The economy has continued to rebound strongly as governments have lifted almost all restrictions on retail and restaurants and eased rules on foreign travel. Restaurant bookings are back above pre... 7th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was... 7th July 2021 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to hike rates in early-2023 By tapering its bond purchases and watering down its commitment to keep its policy rate unchanged until 2024, the RBA is paving the way for interest rate hikes in 2023. 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (May 2021) While the further acceleration in wage growth in May was again largely down to favourable base effects, we think wage growth will stay elevated as the labour market tightens and vaccines fuel a... 6th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Stronger payrolls intensify focus on tapering We aren’t convinced that it will mark the start of a sustained acceleration, but the stronger gain in June payrolls will embolden those Fed officials calling for an earlier end to the Fed’s asset... 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics No need to fear as furlough enters final furlong We think that concerns about the winding up of the furlough scheme are overdone for two reasons. First, at the end of May only 2.3m people were on furlough and half of them were working at least some... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Office markets to shrug off end of furlough The government’s furlough scheme is regarded as one of the successes of the UK’s coronavirus policy response, but all good things must come to an end. Over the next few months, its unwinding will... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.) The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
