US Economics Focus $15 minimum wage would add to inflation pressures We suspect that President Joe Biden’s plan to more than double the minimum wage within four years would have only a minimal impact on GDP. While there would almost certainly be some job losses as a... 10th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi unemployment rate to fall only gradually Saudi Arabia’s unemployment rate has risen sharply in the past year and, while we expect it to fall back, the weak recovery means that it might take many years before it gets close to its pre-pandemic... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions to gradually lift employment The easing of the coronavirus restrictions will support a rebound in employment, but the recovery is likely to be slow going for the next few months due to limited progress with vaccinations. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update Surveys paint more optimistic picture of labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain stronger than the headline data imply and add to the evidence that inflation will rebound this year. 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Dec. 2020) The collapse in wage growth in December was entirely due to a fall in bonus payments. Wage growth will have bounced back in January and should soon turn positive as the labour market tightens and... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Employment in hardest-hit sectors set to bounce back With job losses during the pandemic concentrated in a handful of sectors and demand set to rebound as vaccines are rolled out, we think that the unemployment rate will fall to 5.5% by the end of this... 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) & International Trade (Dec.) While the slump in employment in January suggests GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter, the unexpected rise in hours worked supports our view that GDP will at least continue to increase, and the... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy outlook diverging The New Zealand unemployment rate fell in Q4 and our labour market suite showed an even sharper tightening in the labour market. That’s one reason why we don’t expect the RBNZ to cut rates and why we... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4. 2020) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% in New Zealand means the rate is already past the peak and we expect the labour market to continue to tighten throughout 2021. 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (December) The stability of the euro-zone’s unemployment rate at just 8.3% in December highlights once again the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the pandemic. And as this support... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Strong labour markets point to tighter policy Underlying inflation picked up strongly in New Zealand in Q4, with core inflation rising above the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band. That supports our view that the RBNZ will not cut rates... 1st February 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market having a remarkably good crisis The labour market has been remarkably strong since the onset of the pandemic. And even if the unemployment rate does rise to 6.5% by the end of this year, as we expect, the government would probably... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
