US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The stronger 850,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June may be a sign that some of the temporary labour shortages holding back the employment recovery are starting to ease. But with the labour force... 2nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Surveys overstating peak price pressures At face value the business surveys published this week suggest that euro-zone inflation may soon rise to around 4%. However, we think it is unlikely to get as high as this and, even if it does, will... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Office markets to shrug off end of furlough The government’s furlough scheme is regarded as one of the successes of the UK’s coronavirus policy response, but all good things must come to an end. Over the next few months, its unwinding will... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour shortages to persist Job vacancies have continued to surge in Australia highlighting worsening staff shortages in almost every industry. While subdued labour mobility was an initial driver, we estimate that labour... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Manufacturing bottlenecks may be easing The economic recovery stalled last quarter as the services sector was held back by virus restrictions and manufacturers suffered from chip shortages. However, with daily jabs now above the government... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.) The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Employment already declining at pace Revisions to the historic data following the recent census show that China’s population barely grew last year and that employment is already contracting faster than previously understood, having... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
Japan Data Response Bank of Japan Tankan (Q2 2021) The further rebound in the Q2 Tankan supports our view that the economy’s disappointing start to the year won’t prevent vaccines driving a strong rebound in the second half of the year. And firms’... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (May.) Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Labour shortages set to intensify Canadian firms are not currently suffering from labour shortages to the same extent as those in the US but, with immigration still muted, the issue is likely to get worse as the economy continues to... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch How will central banks respond to the inflation threat? The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the... 30th June 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
US Economics Focus Labour shortages will last well into 2022 The widespread labour shortages evident in the survey data and job opening & quit rates are only partly due to transitory factors, including enhanced unemployment benefits, childcare constraints, and... 29th June 2021 · 17 mins read
