US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession –...

23rd June 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economic Outlook

Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak

The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think...

23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025)

June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing...

23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025)

June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the...

23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year

The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising...

23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Carney plays hardball on US trade deal

A US-Canada trade deal centered on lowering the most onerous US duties, like those on steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, would not stop the economy from slowing later this year, but it would improve...

20th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood

Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers...

20th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Carmakers slashing prices in response to US tariffs

There are signs that Japanese carmakers are reducing their prices in the US to retain market share, which seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that US tariffs will weigh on corporate...

19th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (May 2025)

Labour market and population data published today are sending mixed signals about capacity pressures in the economy. Either way, they probably won’t prevent the RBA from cutting rates further in the...

19th June 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget

China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders...

13th June 2025 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment

The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was...

13th June 2025 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much

The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have...

12th June 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting

We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to...

12th June 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (June 2025)

The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%...

11th June 2025 · 0 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October

We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as...

10th June 2025 · 9 mins read