UK Economics Weekly

Probability of BoE interest rate hikes may be starting to shrink

Despite the Bank of England maintaining its hiking bias on Thursday, it feels as though the Bank is edging further away from interest rate hikes as it comes round to our view that the weak labour...

31st July 2026 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Activity, Labour Market (Jun. 26) & Tokyo CPI (July 26)

The June activity data suggest that GDP rose at a robust pace last quarter, while there are early signs that higher energy costs are feeding through to consumer prices.

31st July 2026 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026)

Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed...

30th July 2026 · 1 min read

US Employment Report Preview

A better month for payrolls

We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a stronger 90,000 in July, but the risks lie toward the unemployment rate ticking back up to 4.3%.

30th July 2026 · 4 mins read

US Economics Update

Labour market conditions likely to tighten again

The immigration crackdown has not generated widespread labour shortages, even in those sectors most exposed. Nonetheless, if we are right to expect stronger labour demand in the coming quarters, then...

28th July 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Strong jobs, higher fuel prices keep rate hike in play

June’s employment surge shows that Australia’s labour market remains resilient despite some broader cooling, while the sharp rise in regional fuel benchmarks is likely to push domestic pump prices...

24th July 2026 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (June 2026)

With the labour market still holding its own, our forecast that the RBA will hike rates again in August remains alive and well.

23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that...

22nd July 2026 · 1 min read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2026)

The outlook hinges on the outcome of CUSMA negotiations, with the Trump administration’s latest 50% tariff announcement underscoring the risks. For now, we still think an agreement will be reached at...

21st July 2026 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances & Labour Market (May/Jun. 2026)

June’s public finances were a rare piece of good news for the PM Burnham and Chancellor Healey, but with the UK’s debt burden still rising, there is limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile...

21st July 2026 · 3 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (July 2026)

We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% and 2.3% this year and next, driven by strong AI-investment and a rebound in consumption growth. The labour market appears to be stabilising, and we expect the...

20th July 2026 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun. 2026)

The official GDP figures showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown in Q2, bringing them closer in line with our China Activity Proxy (CAP). This may largely represent a greater willingness to...

15th July 2026 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany’s summer of reforms will do little for growth

A range of reforms agreed in the past few weeks may shore up confidence in Germany’s government but they will not have much impact on economic growth. We are forecasting GDP to increase by around 0.7%...

14th July 2026 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2026)

Labour market recovering The modest rise in employment in June, following the bumper rise in May, will provide further reassurance to the Bank of Canada that the economy is recovering from its weak...

10th July 2026 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (July)

Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on...

7th July 2026 · 1 min read