US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Oct & Nov 2025) The combined 121,000 rise in private payrolls over October and November was a better result than expected. That positive momentum suggests the Fed will not be overly concerned by the upside surprise... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Dec. 2025) Although December’s flash PMIs showed that economic activity and price pressures increased, they are still consistent with sluggish GDP growth and falling services inflation. So we doubt this will... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct./Nov. 2025) Despite the continued cooling in the jobs market, total wage growth continues to ease only fairly gradually. But the Bank of England will take comfort from the more significant continued easing in its... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook The year that inflation falls back to 2% After enduring a higher inflation rate than most of its peers for the bulk of the past five years, we think that 2026 will be the year that inflation in the UK falls back to the 2.0% target. That will... 15th December 2025 · 17 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect... 12th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027 The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025) Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Hopes for strong recovery will be disappointed Economic growth will remain subdued over the next two years as the largest economies struggle and the smaller ones outperform. Past ECB interest rate cuts will do little to boost activity because... 10th December 2025 · 28 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebounded in Nov after likely Oct slump Following a likely 60,000 slump in October, as more than 100,000 workers dropped off the federal payroll, we estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by 50,000 in November. We expect the unemployment... 10th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS teases an improving labour market The JOLTS data for September and October show glimpses of a rosier labour market, with firms in tariff-affected sectors posting more jobs and layoffs concentrated in a couple of sectors. This chimes... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals upside risks to inflation and employment The November NFIB survey suggests that the labour market is regaining momentum, while also pointing to some upside risks to inflation. At the margin at least, that lends some support to our view that... 9th December 2025 · 2 mins read
