Chief Economist's Note A major global slowdown? Parsing signals from the big three On top of tariff threats and geopolitical ruptures, investors are having to grapple with notable signs of weakness in the recent economic data. With that said, while the outlook has clearly soured, we... 3rd March 2025
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth to evade federal cutbacks for now We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, given that most of the recent cuts to the federal workforce won’t yet have shown up in the data and employment in weather-sensitive sectors... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Long Run Economic Outlook Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption President Trump’s trade and other policies might cause turbulence over the next few years, but they are unlikely to derail the megatrends which will shape the global economy in the long run. We still... 25th February 2025 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ negotiated wage inflation will fall sharply this year The decline in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.1% in Q4 last year is likely to be followed by further large falls this year. This is because tax-free one-off wage payments which lifted German... 25th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump turns the screw on tariffs One month after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump continues to issue new tariff threats, this week taking aim at imports of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His... 21st February 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA’s hands tied by the tight labour market When the RBA cut rates by 25bp this week, it made it painfully clear that any further loosening of policy settings would be modest given the strong labour market. The Bank's concerns seem to be well... 21st February 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The latest data suggest that, outside China, the world economy lost a bit of momentum heading into 2025. Around the turn of the year, manufacturing output kept treading water, retail sales weakened in... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2025) 20th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2024) 19th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of... 18th February 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2024) While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains subdued as the prospect of higher business taxes and a higher minimum wage in April is... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2024) The euro-zone economy performed a little better than previously though t in Q4, but growth was still extremely weak and the early signs are that it got off to a slow start to 2025. There is also... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lack of labour casts shadow over Greek recovery Prospects for Greece’s economy are brighter than for the core euro-zone economies over the next year or two, but a shortage of labour will keep growth lower than in fellow “peripheral” economies... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ Watch: RBNZ has several more cuts in the pipeline The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much... 12th February 2025 · 6 mins read
