Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 25) With the labour market going from strength to strength, we’re more convinced than ever that the RBA will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast for a... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) The pick-up in wage growth in Q1 won’t prevent the RBA from cutting interest rates next week but it will limit the scope of additional easing thereafter. 14th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2025) The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But with wage growth still stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range and energy prices set to drive up... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr. 2025) Employment would have fallen again in April were it not for the boost from the federal election, which supports our view that the Bank of Canada will resume its loosening cycle next month and... 9th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weakness in wage growth probably not genuine While the trade deal agreed between the UK and the US this week sets an encouraging precedent, there are no signs of progress in the talks between Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the recent slump in... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (May 2025) Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased... 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gauging the fallout in China’s labour market Chinese policymakers will probably find ways to keep the published unemployment rate close to their “around 5.5%” target for this year. But this may mask broader weakness in the labour market as a... 7th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1 2025) 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Resilient payrolls data point to higher Treasury yields The stronger-than-expected April US Employment Report published today leaves us comfortable with our central scenario that the trade war won’t be enough to tip the US economy into recession. So, we... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
