Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tight labour market bolsters case for a final rate hike The decline in Australia's labour force in September reinforces our view that net migration is providing less of a boost to labour supply than many had anticipated. Indeed, NAB's Q3 business survey... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Profit boost from weak yen helps sustain virtuous cycle As we had anticipated, the weak yen isn’t providing a big boost to Japan’s export volumes. Instead, its impact is mainly felt via higher yen revenue and costs. With firms having passed on the full... 20th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Shunto will result in base pay hike well above 2% Japan’s trade unions are demanding an even larger pay hike in the upcoming spring wage negotiations and we believe that the talks will result in a base pay hike of around 2.5%. While the Bank of Japan... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Labour markets cooling, but wage growth remains strong There are mounting signs that labour market conditions in many parts of Latin America are starting to loosen, but wages are still rising at a rapid pace and it will take time for wage growth to return... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Sep. 2023) The September data suggest that the labour market could take longer to cool than the RBA currently expects. Accordingly, we still expect the Bank to hike by 25bp at its November meeting. 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Wage pressures have peaked, but may ease only gradually There is a growing body of evidence that suggests wage pressures are past their peak, but it’s not clear how quickly wage growth will slow. The gradual loosening in the labour market and the... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2023) Cooling labour market conditions appeared to start feeding through into an easing in wage growth in August. That supports our view that interest rates have peaked at 5.25%. But as we suspect wage... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Labour market should tighten again before long The job-to-applicant ratio has usually signalled earlier than the Tankan that the labour market has taken a turn for the worse. But despite the recent fall in the number of jobs relative to applicants... 16th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The latest activity and survey data have provided even more evidence that the resilience in activity in advanced economies over the first half of 2023 is now fading. High interest rates are clearly... 13th October 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand elections won’t usher in major changes Opinion polls in the run up to tomorrow’s general election in New Zealand suggest that the centre-right National party is in pole position to wrest power from the incumbent, centre-left Labour party... 13th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The impact of net migration on Australia’s economy Most of the recent surge in net migration has been driven by the increased arrival of foreign students, who generally spend less, work fewer hours and demand less housing than the average Australian... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s tight labour market continues to feed inflation Tightness in Mexico’s labour market continues to fuel wage pressures, with real wages now rising at their fastest pace since the early 2000s. But this isn’t being matched by productivity growth and... 11th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
