RBA Watch

RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a...

11th June 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024)

The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (June 2024)

The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

CE Spotlight

Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken?

We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI...

10th June 2024 · 1 min read

CE Spotlight

Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it?

The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various...

10th June 2024 · 39 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Wage growth may still be a concern for the Bank

The Bank of Canada kicked off its loosened cycle this week and the accompanying communications left the door open for another cut in July, although still-strong wage pressures are one reason why the...

7th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2024)

The further rise in the unemployment rate in May shows that the labour market continues to loosen, but the surprising pick-up in wage growth still provides reason to be cautious about the idea that...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Virtuous cycle will go into reverse next year

The jump in wage growth in April provides tentative evidence that the strong pay results agreed in this year's spring wage negotiations are starting to filter through and we expect regular earnings...

7th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

JOLTS data point to growing labour market slack

The April JOLTS data provided further evidence of normalisation, with job openings falling further, layoffs still at historically low levels and the leading indicators all pointing to wage growth...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Focus

Why is wage growth in Korea so weak?

The recent weakness of wage growth in Korea seems at odds with the country’s low unemployment rate. But a closer look at the data suggests that the unemployment rate is overstating the health of the...

4th June 2024 · 9 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Window for policy tightening is closing

A rebound in real household incomes should ensure that the recent slump in output should turn into above-trend GDP growth of 1% over the next couple of years. Regardless, inflation will continue to...

4th June 2024 · 18 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Wage growth will undershoot RBA’s forecasts

This year’s minimum wage increase will be a bit smaller than we had anticipated. And with the looser labour market putting downward pressure on wage growth among workers not covered by the minimum...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Lower education costs could boost fertility rate

While Japan's fertility rate seems to have fallen to a record low last year, it has held up better than in many of its high-income neighbours. Most of the decline is driven by the decline in marriage...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (Apr. 24) & Tokyo CPI (May 24)

May’s rebound in inflation in Tokyo largely reflects a jump in electricity inflation that has further to run, but underlying inflation will continue to moderate.

31st May 2024 · 2 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (May 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read