US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug 2026) Even the most committed dove would struggle to find much in the August employment report to justify keeping interest rates unchanged, with the surge in payrolls driven by strength across the non... 4th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What should the ECB make of the bond sell-off? The ECB is unlikely to be overly concerned by the recent sell-off in bond markets, not least because spreads generally remain low and are not rising rapidly. On Monday, euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 is... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) With inflation and the resulting drag on households’ real incomes yet to peak, we doubt the surprising resilience of activity in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of this... 3rd September 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole & Preliminary Benchmark Revisions Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer price... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unwilling to toe government’s line The regular budget for FY2027 will probably include the largest increase in spending since the early 1990s. However, this partly reflects the government’s aim to incorporate spending previously... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed sharply in July, reflecting disruptions to construction and industry from typhoons as well as the ongoing drag from weak fiscal spending. But... 28th August 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (August 2026) The world economy has been resilient in the face of high energy prices. Outside the Gulf, global GDP growth looks to have been stable in Q2, as government support, saving buffers, and the AI boom have... 27th August 2026 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Temporary Payroll Shock There is scope for some of the weakness in July’s employment report to reverse, but the administration’s decision to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for roughly 350,000 people in late July is... 27th August 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal tweaks, labour market holding up In a press conference today, officials from China's Ministry of Finance pledged to ramp up the pace of fiscal spending in the second half of the year. This will mainly come from better use of existing... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s bark will be worse than its bite With the RBA keeping up its hawkish rhetoric, financial markets continue to see another rate hike this cycle as more likely than not. We remain sceptical. Data released this week show that labour... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) While the economy gained momentum in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to slow again in the second half of the year amid ongoing uncertainty around CUSMA negotiations. The combination of soft... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy has weathered the energy shock well as Japan has been able to secure sufficient crude... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (July 2026) With the labour market continuing to cool, we doubt that the RBA will tighten policy any further despite its recent hawkish messaging. 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
