Chief Economist's Note A post-summer catch-up With Europe still returning from the beach and the US gearing up for Labor Day, I’ll spare you a full note this week. But for those easing back into work, here’s a quick recap of the key developments... 27th August 2025
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear... 27th August 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Ueda overstating structural change in labour market The Bank of Japan is overplaying the importance of structural changes in Japan’s labour market in explaining the post-pandemic pick-up in cost pressures. Even so, we still expect inflation to be... 26th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Labour demand could be even weaker In the wake of the disappointing July payrolls release, which revealed an unexpected near-stagnation in employment over the summer, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his Jackson Hole speech that... 22nd August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth will fall further this year The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025) The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November. 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin and the euro-zone economy We do not expect President Trump’s meeting with President Putin to make a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. But even if there is a "deal" in the coming months the implications for the wider... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Strong jobs market won’t keep RBA from easing further When the RBA delivered a 25bp cut this week, it signalled a willingness to lower rates below 3% for the first time this cycle. Although subsequently released labour market and wage data surprised... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The economy has mostly held up against US tariffs so far, thanks largely to resilient consumer spending. But exports have weakened, and investment is showing signs of slowing. With the upcoming USMCA... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response GDP second estimate, Employment (Q2) and IP (June) Data released today confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labour market is cooling. We are forecasting a temporary pick-up in growth next year as a... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (July 2025) The tick down in the unemployment rate in July is likely to keep the RBA on sidelines at its next meeting in September, but we still think the Bank will ultimately loosen policy a bit further than... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2 2025) 13th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just US While the US jobs data captured the spotlight recently, the weakening of labour markets in most advanced economies has received less attention. Softer labour demand should dampen wage and price... 12th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Unemployment Proxy signals a looser labour market Our new CE UK Unemployment Proxy extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of labour market slack and suggests that the labour market has loosened further than the Labour Force Survey... 12th August 2025 · 5 mins read
