Long Run Economic Outlook

AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat

The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in...

20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Strong negotiated wage growth won’t stop ECB cuts

Data published today show that negotiated wage growth in the euro-zone remained strong at the end of last year. But these data won’t stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in April – as we are...

20th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and...

20th February 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Productivity repair will pave the way for rate cuts

Australian labour market data released this week showed that hours worked per employee fell sharply in January, continuing a downtrend that began early last year. The deep slump in average hours...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening plans

While Japan's GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter, other data overwhelmingly point to the economy holding up rather than falling into recession. And while the third consecutive fall in...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the...

15th February 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Jan. 2024)

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait

With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling...

14th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2023)

Data released this morning confirm that the euro-zone economy stagnated in Q4 and we expect this to continue in the first half of the year.

14th February 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Dec. 2023)

While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as we expect.

13th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Labour market strength buys the Bank more time

The strength of the labour market in January is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada can wait a little longer before it starts to cut interest rates. We now forecast the first interest rate...

9th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan.)

Although the sharp rise in employment in January may paint a healthier picture of the labour market than what is under the surface, the Bank of Canada will still be concerned about the renewed decline...

9th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid labour cost growth eroding competitiveness

The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively...

9th February 2024 · 19 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Next move is still down for Antipodean central banks

Although the RBA refused to rule out additional interest rate increases at its meeting this week, we suspect a cooling economy will obviate the need for further policy tightening. That said, in...

9th February 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Update

Strong payrolls unlikely to reignite wage growth

The strength of payroll employment growth over the past two months is likely to be a blip rather than the start of a renewed acceleration and the wider evidence still points to a further slowdown in...

8th February 2024 · 5 mins read