Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.) The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while... 8th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The unchanged level of employment in December is consistent with the message from the business surveys that labour demand has weakened significantly in recent months. Nonetheless, with wage growth... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Dec.) The slightly bigger-than-expected 216,000 gain in non-farm payrolls (consensus estimate was 170,000) in December coupled with a second consecutive 0.4% m/m gain in average hourly earnings means that... 5th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the RBA will ease sooner than most expect Although the analyst consensus expects the RBA to cut rates only in September, we're sticking with our view that the RBA will loosen policy as early as May. For one thing, the household cash flow... 5th January 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) The run of softer-than-expected news on CPI inflation and wage growth means we now expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates sooner than before. Our forecast is that rates will be cut from 5.25... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Nov.) Total employment growth in November across our 30 metros was weak compared with the rest of 2023, growing by 0.3% 3m/3m once seasonally-adjusted. On average, office-based jobs contracted for the... 4th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to slower wage growth The further decline in job openings to 8.79 million in November, from 8.85 million, was a bit gloomier than expected given that the JOLTS measure had previously dropped below the level implied by the... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth reliant on non-cyclical sectors After the near 200,000 gain in payroll employment in November, which included the return of 47,000 workers who had been on strike, we expect a more muted 150,000 increase in December. We also... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rapid immigration making the Bank’s job harder Data this week showed that the population jumped by 430,000 in the third quarter alone, almost as much as the official full-year permanent resident target of 465,000. Nonetheless, the November CPI... 22nd December 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian labour market still set to turn Leading indicators suggest that employment growth in Australia is unlikely to slow meaningfully in the near term. However, even if job creation remains resilient, it is unlikely to keep pace with the... 22nd December 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of next year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting next year from March onwards, with rates... 19th December 2023 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Union deals point to easing wage growth next year Some of the negotiations by trade unions and large firms in advanced economies over recent months have resulted in large pay rises of up to 10%. However, they have typically also locked in much... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
