Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Are central banks’ hawkish tones to be believed? Central banks will probably continue to push back on expectations of rate cuts at their scheduled policy announcements in the coming weeks. But with inflation and wage pressures clearly moderating, we... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Homebuilding slump isn’t as bad as it seems With new dwelling commencements falling to a 11-year low, some commentators have raised concerns that a lack of housing supply will fuel a resurgence in inflationary pressures. However, we're not... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Five key themes from Euromoney's CEE forum The fading energy crisis and the falls in inflation and interest rates generated a more positive mood about the economic outlook at Euromoney’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) forum in Vienna this... 18th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Will the last mile be the hardest? The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in... 18th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2023) 18th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2023) Another big drop in wage growth in November supports our view that domestic inflationary pressures are fading fairly fast. But the ongoing tightness of the labour market will probably mean that the... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: rise in female participation rate a welcome sign Korea’s December labour market report published earlier this week show the country is making welcome progress in bringing more women into the formal labour force. Unfortunately, however, this recent... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Household consumption will remain weak this year Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few... 12th January 2024 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will... 10th January 2024 · 1 min read
