US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour-market-induced fears of recession are overdone Weak employment data have revived recession talk in several advanced economies. However, detecting recessions early requires examining a range of indicators rather than just focusing on the labour... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2025) The preliminary benchmark estimate points to a massive 911,000 downward revision to the level of non-farm payroll employment in March 2025 and, based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly September rate cut now looks almost certain The August Labour Force Survey was weak, with employment falling by 66,500 and the unemployment rate rising to a four-year high of 7.1%. While the Bank of Canada always expected some weakness in... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug. 2025) The second consecutive large fall in employment together with the renewed rise in the unemployment rate underscore that conditions in the labour market remain bleak amid the impact of US tariffs. The... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug. 2025) While the weak 22,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August confirms what already looked a nailed-on rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, the limited rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% will curb... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS points to a gradually easing labour market The JOLTS data for July point to a gradual easing in labour market conditions. The large decline in healthcare and social assistance job openings is another reason to think that the disproportionate... 3rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem signals fine tuning of Bank framework Speaking at Banco de Mexico’s 100th anniversary event this week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem steered clear of discussing the economic or policy outlook. However, he offered some useful hints... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tight labour market will prompt further BoJ tightening There are signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. However, with the labour market still extremely tight and inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Immigrant crackdown to limit employment rebound We expect non-farm payrolls to have increased by a modest 90,000 in August, as immigration curbs limit labour supply. We expect the unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 4.2%, while average... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Vision 2030 & non-oil trade, Tunisia protests A report from the Saudi statistics office this week provided further evidence that women are playing a greater role in the economy – one area where the Vision 2030 reforms have had significant success... 28th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Vision 2030: where do things stand with five years to go? Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme passed the halfway mark last year and we published an in-depth Focus evaluating the progress so far. This Update takes a fresh look at how close the... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
