Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2025) The modest rise in New Zealand’s jobless rate in Q4 masks the fact that underlying labour market conditions have started to improve. That said, we still think policy tightening won’t be on the Bank’s... 3rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2025) & Unemployment (Dec. 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained around its trend rate in Q4 and we expect it to maintain that pace in 2026. 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Modest payroll gain and unchanged unemployment The January employment report will reveal significant downward revisions to payrolls in 2025 and, due to an updated methodology for the birth-death model, the initially reported payroll gains for this... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (January 2026) January’s EC survey suggests that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year, with the services sector growing while industry continues to struggle. But the labour market has loosened... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hike rates in February and May The ongoing persistence in underlying inflation will persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse course on rate cuts. We expect the Bank to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, followed... 28th January 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy continues to run hot We learned this week that Australia’s unemployment rate fell to a seven-month low in December. The strength of the labour market is a key reason to expect consumption growth to remain brisk in the... 23rd January 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Dec. 2025) Given the renewed tightening in the labour market in December, the Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to pull the trigger on a rate hike at its meeting next month. 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We see recent strength in AI-related business investment as the start of a multi-year capex boom, driving GDP growth of 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Despite the economy running hot and labour... 21st January 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why is services inflation stickier in Europe than the US? Given comparatively weak economic conditions, it might seem surprising that services inflation has been stickier in Europe than in the US in recent months. But much of this reflects the delayed... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update At least two more years of divergence between South and West We expect continued divergence in both total non-farm and office-sector job growth across the largest metros over the next two years. Those in the South will continue to significantly outperform the... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Nov./Dec. 2025) While the labour market remains soft, the stability of overall pay growth in November diminishes the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% now to 3.50% at the next policy... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
