UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4 2023) Although the unemployment rate last quarter came in below the RBNZ’s expectations, leading indicators continue to point to a rapid loosening of labour market conditions this year. Accordingly, we... 6th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA pours cold water on the prospect of early rate cuts With the Reserve Bank of Australia still striking a hawkish tone at its meeting today, we’re pushing back our forecast for the Bank’s first rate cut from May. But we still think that incoming data... 6th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Lower unemployment rate raises risk of later rate cuts The news this morning that the unemployment rate is lower than previously thought increases the chances that interest rate cuts start a little later and are slower. 5th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell preaches caution amid jobs bonanza Based on the steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through this week’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 353,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in January illustrates why the Fed is apparently in no rush to start cutting interest rates and kills off any remaining chance of a cut as soon as March. Even if... 2nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly End-year bonuses will signal strength of wage pressure The upcoming wage and bonus data for the end of 2023 will provide a check on the temperature of Japan’s labour market. They will show that earnings are still being outstripped by inflation. But what... 2nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Wage growth set to slow The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of... 1st February 2024 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
RBA Watch A dovish pivot is on the horizon We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly... 31st January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data suggest disinflation will continue The December JOLTS data show a continued painless normalisation in the labour market – with job openings on a downward trend, layoffs unusually low and wage growth set for a sharp slowdown. 30th January 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Downward trend set to intensify A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
