China Economics Update Another look at China's shifting labour market China is undergoing a major shift in its labour market as the surplus of rural workers dries up. But, after delving into the details, we conclude that several factors will dampen the speed at which... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January's Employment Report was unequivocally strong and points to a rapidly improving labour market. Non-farm payrolls increased by 243,000, a nine-month high, up from 203,000 in December. That was... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's dismal employment gain and rise in the unemployment rate are further signs that the economy ended last year on a weaker footing. Given the headwinds confronting Canada's economy, we doubt... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy stumbles in the fourth quarter November's surprising 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP was caused by a sharp drop in energy output. All things considered, we now figure that fourth-quarter GDP grew by 1.5% annualised, below our previous... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Output stronger than expected but difficulties remain Industrial production surprised on the upside in December, and survey evidence points to another strong month in January. Whilst it is nice to get some good news on the Japanese economy, it is hard to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Dec.) December’s euro-zone unemployment figures revealed a further increase that will add to the downward pressure on consumer spending in the coming months. 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Benchmark revision adds to the uncertainty After incorporating the “known knowns”, our econometric model suggests that payrolls rose by around 150,000 in January, which would be less than December’s 200,000 gain. The “known unknowns” of the... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Nov.) November's non-farm payroll survey data, which showed little change in average weekly wages and only a modest increase in employment of 12,261, was somewhat discouraging at first glance. Nonetheless... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack GDP growth to slow again in first quarter It appears that GDP growth accelerated to around 2.4% annualised in the fourth quarter, up from 1.8% in the third. But we suspect that, despite the apparent strength in some of the incoming data, it... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Activity weak and outlook uncertain Economic conditions took a turn for the worse in November, as output, spending and exports all declined. Sentiment indicators for December were mixed with business confidence mostly stable, but... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Nov./Dec.) On balance, there was more to worry about than to cheer in the latest labour market data. While there were perhaps some signs that the deterioration in the labour market is beginning to ease, we... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to support growth in Asia The ongoing debt crisis in the euro-zone is likely to weigh on growth in Asia in 2012-13. Although the region’s most open economies are set to slow quite sharply, we forecast that growth in the region... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Divergences widen Some of the euro-zone’s survey indicators have ticked up in the past month. However, they almost unanimously warn of a renewed recession in the region, with the composite PMI, for example, pointing to... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The bigger than expected 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in December (consensus forecast was 155,000) alongside the decline in the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.5%, from 8.7%... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's employment gain of 17,500 jobs, following a slightly larger loss in the month before, was softer than we had expected and was not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from nudging higher... 6th January 2012 · 1 min read
