UK Economics Chart Pack UK remains a safe haven from euro-zone turmoil The threat to the UK from the euro-zone has continued to intensify, with concerns building about the Spanish banking system in recent days. But the UK has so far retained its safe-haven status, with... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May's employment report clearly suggests that labour market conditions are deteriorating again, which will undoubtedly prompt more speculation that QE3is coming soon. Non-farm payrolls increased by... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemp. & Final Man. PMI (Apr./May) The latest data on the state of the euro-zone labour market and manufacturing sector confirm that the economic downturn is broadening and gathering pace. This clearly further reduces policymakers’... 1st June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Currencies and equities fall sharply, further falls likely Following a strong start to the year, most Asian currencies and equities fell sharply in May. The main reason is that renewed concerns over the euro-zone’s future brought a return in global risk... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (May) May’s fall in euro-zone CPI inflation and the drop in the German unemployment rate were rare pieces of good news for the beleaguered euro-zone. But the recent sharp falls in measures of business... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Recovery already losing momentum Japan’s rapid recovery in Q1 already appears to be losing momentum. The unemployment rate has risen again and retail spending fell for a second consecutive month in April. However, government... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rise back to underlying trend Our econometric model suggests that May is the month when payrolls growth snapped back in line with the underlying trend. We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, up... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Labour's share of income to continue trending lower Labour's share of income has been on a downward structural trend since the 1980s, resulting from the decline in labour's bargaining power, globalisation and technological progress. Not only will that... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Labour market activity is still holding up surprisingly well. But pay growth remains exceptionally weak and we expect the return to recession to weigh on the jobs figures before long. 16th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weaker global economy to expose local vulnerabilities Relative to the rest of the world, at least, the immediate outlook for Latin America remains good. Nonetheless, vulnerabilities are starting to emerge in a number of the region’s economies, which are... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April's surprising 58,200 gain in employment, which follows an almost equally impressive gain in the prior month (see chart), is welcomed news given the unusually weak figures that preceded it... 11th May 2012 · 1 min read
