US Commercial Property Update AI boom will not prevent Southern metros pushing ahead Within a sluggish national picture, metro jobs performance has varied widely with some cities - notably Washington D.C. - seeing big contractions, while others grew strongly - such as Las Vegas and... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could the BoJ lift rates into restrictive territory? The inflationary consequences of the Iran War have made us more confident in our view that the BoJ’s policy rate will climb to a neutral level of around 2% before long. However, the hurdles for the... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market too weak to generate big second-round effects We have been saying for some time that the current economic backdrop is much less conducive to a long-lasting bout of inflation than it was in 2022. This week’s news only adds to that feeling. As a... 22nd May 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA's work not done yet The jump in Australia's unemployment rate and the recent plunge in auction clearance rates suggest that the upside risks to our interest rate forecasts have diminished. Nonetheless, with underlying... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (April 2026) The strong pickup in Australia’s jobless rate in April makes it all but certain that the Bank will leave rates on hold at 4.35% at its June meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to... 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2026) If energy prices gradually ease in the second half of this year, as in our baseline, GDP growth should average 2.1% this year and pick up to 2.3% next year. Higher gasoline prices will weigh on... 20th May 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2026) The sharp weakening in the labour market in April may help to restrain the recent upward march in gilt yields by highlighting that, so far at least, the Iran war is prompting businesses to reduce... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2026) Domestic headwinds look to have intensified last month, especially when it comes to construction activity. But with external demand picking up and the electronics sector in an upswing, we still think... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy are very sensitive to the severity and duration of the increase in energy prices. Our baseline forecasts are based on an assumption that the price of Brent crude... 13th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1 2026) & Industrial Production (March 2026) The euro-zone economy grew around its trend pace in Q1 and March’s industrial production data show that higher energy prices did not take an immediate toll on output. Our baseline forecast is that GDP... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) Although wage growth eased a touch in Q1, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures could soon bubble up again. As a result, we still think the RBA has more work to do. 13th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI averages $80pb over the second half of the year. This will boost GDP growth slightly and keep headline inflation above 2.5% in the coming months. But the backdrop of weak... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack - Iran War Edition (May 2026) While Gulf economies have already taken a big hit from the Iran war, the effect on activity in major economies seems to have been limited so far. Inflation has begun to rise and will continue to do so... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr 2026) The rise in the unemployment rate to a six-month high of 6.9% has trimmed investors’ overly hawkish interest rate expectations and supports our view that, with the labour market in a funk and a... 8th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr. 2026) The solid 115,000 rise in payroll employment in April and still-muted 4.3% unemployment rate add to the reasons for the Fed to remain on hold for now. The reduced reliance of hiring on healthcare in... 8th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Would ECB rate hikes be a mistake? With interest rate hikes by the ECB looking likely, we are often asked whether this would be a mistake, with unfavourable comparisons made to previous ECB monetary policy decisions. But there are... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
