Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4 2025) Although the pickup in wage growth last quarter was driven in part by one-off factors, a look under the hood suggests that wage pressures will be slow to recede over the year ahead. Insofar as that... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec./Jan. 2026) The lack of green shoots of recovery in the labour market and further fall in wage growth supports the idea that the Bank of England has at least a couple more interest rate cuts in its locker, with... 17th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Improving jobs market weakens case for more Fed cuts January's employment report was about as good as could have been hoped for, with a 172,000 rise in private payrolls comfortably beating expectations and the unemployment rate dropping further to 4.3%... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb 2026) We expect GDP growth to be little more than 1% this year as household spending and investment remain subdued amid the immigration crackdown and start of CUSMA renegotiation. Despite soft employment... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jan. 2026) The 172,000 surge in private payrolls in January owed a lot to a 124,000 surge in health care & social assistance, but private sector hiring elsewhere still appears to be strengthening. Indeed, the... 11th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start normalising policy in Q2 2027 The RBNZ will leave rates on hold at 2.25% at its meeting on 18th February. With the latest data suggesting that the balance of risks to the economic outlook has shifted somewhat to the upside, we’re... 11th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The latest data seem to confirm that global GDP growth slowed in Q4. But there are also several signs of encouragement, consistent with our forecast for global growth to stabilise at about 3% this... 9th February 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to be fairly sluggish in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide only a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 9th February 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Dec. 2025) Wage growth edged up a notch towards the end of last year, and we think it will gain further momentum in the months ahead. Accordingly, the Bank of Japan is likely to press ahead with additional... 9th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing could take a while to thaw The local real estate board data for January shows that the housing market is still struggling, and we probably can’t blame it all on the weather. Meanwhile, the large fall in the unemployment rate... 6th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Jobs market health still in question ahead of Jan payrolls This week's slew of soft labour market data releases – including a further slump in job openings, higher weekly jobless claims, and a rebound in Challenger job cut announcements – has resurfaced... 6th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jan 2026) The 0.3%-pt drop back in the unemployment rate to 6.5% last month came on the back of a large fall in the labour force and in spite of a 25,000 decline in employment. We expect this trend to continue... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Christine Lagarde’s wishful thinking on AI This week’s inflation data and ECB decision were in line with expectations. In this Weekly we take a look at Christine Lagarde’s claim that there is a significant AI-related pick-up in investment in... 6th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS challenges view that the jobs market has stabilised The large downside surprise in December job openings may concern Fed officials and suggest they were premature to remove language in last month’s policy statement emphasising elevated downside risks... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s labour market is on the mend Our China Labour Market Indicator has climbed back above its long-run average recently, signalling an improving employment backdrop. A key driver has been stronger labour demand among exporters, who... 4th February 2026 · 4 mins read
