US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025)

A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average...

20th March 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Jan. 2025)

With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4.50% today. The next cut will probably be...

20th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Feb. 25)

20th March 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

CE UK Employment Indicator signals cooling not collapse

Our new CE UK Employment Indicator, which extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of employment, suggests that while employment growth has continued to slow in Q1 this year, it is cooling...

19th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Economic Outlook

Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run

While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain...

17th March 2025 · 18 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Duterte in the dock, Korea’s welcome workforce shift

The arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC will not have any direct economic consequences, but it shines a light on the deepening political instability in the Philippines, particularly...

14th March 2025 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Ueda cautious despite strongest pay hikes in 34 years

Even though this year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hike since 1991, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda this week sounded worried about developments overseas. That creates risk to...

14th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025)

The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0%...

11th March 2025 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

JOLTS data healthy prior to DOGE purge

While January’s JOLTS report was not much to shout about, timelier labour market data suggest conditions look set to worsen amid DOGE’s gutting of the federal workforce. We remain optimistic for now...

11th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025)

Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we...

10th March 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Jan. 25)

Regular pay growth surged in January and with this year’s spring wage negotiations set to result in stronger pay hikes than last year, wage growth will pick up further over the course of the year

9th March 2025 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Employment Report (Feb. 2025)

The modest 151,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in February and 0.1%-point rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1% confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession. Some...

7th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2025)

The essentially unchanged level of employment in February was probably mostly due to the unseasonably severe winter weather during the survey reference week rather than the threat of US tariffs...

7th March 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Shunto bonanza points to more rate hikes

Japan’s trade unions are requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did a year ago and we expect employers to comply. With inflation already on track to...

7th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan 2025 spring wage negotiations (Shunto) wage request

With Japan’s trade unions requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations (Shunto) than they did a year ago, we now expect the negotiations to result in a base pay hike of...

6th March 2025 · 2 mins read