Europe Economic Outlook ECB "in a good place", for now... We think that the ECB will change its view that interest rates are “in a good place” next year. Growth looks set to remain slow by international standards, and we suspect that it will be weaker than... 29th September 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone activity and sentiment remain subdued Economic growth in the euro-zone is likely to pick up a bit heading into next year, but we suspect that the improvement will be more muted than most anticipate. And the data released this week show no... 26th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Data flashing mixed signals, New RBNZ governor With Australian inflation surprising to the upside in August, markets now expect the RBA to deliver just one more 25bp cut this cycle, rather than two. However, with business surveys showing output... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2025) The latest data are consistent with the world economy having recovered a bit more momentum in Q3. Industry has held up well, world trade has shrugged off tariffs, and an AI investment boom is underway... 25th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to weigh on job growth We forecast a 50,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September, as the continued slimming of the federal workforce limits any rebound in private payrolls growth. We also expect the unemployment rate to... 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Canada Economics Update How concerning is elevated long-run unemployment? We suspect the main reason why the long-run unemployment rate has shot up is the surge in immigration since the pandemic, as many of these migrants have struggled to find work. This suggests the... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hold its fire as economy rebounds The Reserve Bank of Australia is almost certain to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting ending on September 30th. After all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the Bank... 24th September 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep. 2025) September’s flash PMIs suggest that the downside risks around economic activity may be growing a bit and the upside risks to inflation may be fading, albeit only slowly. But with inflation likely to... 23rd September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook More tax rises to add to economy’s woes The prospect of more tax hikes in the Budget in November adds to our view that inflation in the UK won’t remain higher than in the euro-zone and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 4... 22nd September 2025 · 18 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) We expect growth to average more than 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has opened the... 18th September 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 2025) Despite the weak employment print for August, there appears to be limited spare capacity in the labour market. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the RBA will only cut rates by another 50bp... 18th September 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2025) While the further, albeit modest, falls in payroll employment and our seasonally adjusted measure of single-month job vacancies in August suggest that the labour market continued to loosen gradually... 16th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
