US Economics Update

Payrolls to bounce back from post-summer slump

The latest labour market indicators continue to portray a low-hire, low-hire environment. Accordingly, we’re forecasting a 70,000 rise in payrolls and a tick down in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in...

29th October 2026 · 4 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Oct. 2026)

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth weakened further in Q3, in contrast to official figures which showed growth picking up. Exports continued to outperform on the back of strong AI and green...

29th October 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (October 2026)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Underlying inflation in Australia gained traction in Q3, while leading indicators suggest that it will...

29th October 2026 · 1 min read

RBA Watch

Hawkish RBA will hike again for good measure

With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA will lift its cash rate by 25bp to an 18-year high of 4.85% at its November meeting. That hike will put policy settings well and truly into restrictive...

28th October 2026 · 8 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2026)

GDP growth looks to have lost some momentum in the third quarter, and headwinds from new tariffs and ongoing CUSMA uncertainty will weigh on activity over the next few quarters. While most measures of...

26th October 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Hawkish RBA may yet hike rates again

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish comments this week have heightened the risk of another rate hike in November. Elevated energy prices, the AI investment boom and weak productivity threaten...

23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

RENGO pushing for another large Shunto pay hike

With the energy cost shock barely making a dent in Japan's trade balance and corporate profits going from strength to strength, trade unions are demanding another strong pay hike in next year's spring...

23rd October 2026 · 4 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Risks to our interest rate forecasts shifting to the upside

The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting but will signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation. With little evidence that the tightening delivered so...

23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Oct. 2026)

Strong AI-related investment and resilient consumption should cause GDP growth to rebound in the third quarter and maintain a growth rate of about 2.5% in the coming year. Despite the recent slowdown...

22nd October 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end

We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final...

22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2026)

The unexpected fall in the unemployment rate in August suggests the labour market may be starting to recover, but the big picture is that hiring remains weak. With businesses’ energy costs likely to...

20th October 2026 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma

The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between firms surveyed before and after new tariffs were...

19th October 2026 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2026)

The improvement in official GDP growth last quarter is at odds with the slowdown shown by our China Activity Proxy (CAP). But the September data do suggest that the economy regained momentum at the...

19th October 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Looser labour market means policy is tight enough

The RBA argued that monetary policy was only “somewhat restrictive” at its September meeting. However, the Bank’s decision to lift the cash rate further at that meeting means that policy is now more...

16th October 2026 · 4 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Inflation outlook doesn’t justify market rate expectations

Our latest deep dive into the drivers of inflation reinforces our view that markets are overstating the risk of persistent price pressures and pricing in too many interest rate hikes. After rising in...

15th October 2026 · 17 mins read