US Economics Update Have AI effects shifted to boosting US employment? It is hard to accurately gauge the extent to which the adoption of AI is affecting payrolls, but the recent improvement in jobs growth in those industries most exposed to AI suggests any negative... 9th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Tariffs back on the agenda The Trump administration's latest tariff announcement will have a negligible impact on the effective tariff rate for Canada. But it seems the administration will be looking for higher US content... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2026) Strengthening in labour market increases chance of rate hikes this year The strong rebound in employment and the fall in the unemployment rate to 6.6% will provide some relief to the Bank of Canada... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2026) The third consecutive consensus-beating gain in non-farm payrolls in May should further reduce concern among the FOMC about the downside risks to the labour market, thereby making it even harder for... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan edges closer to policy normalisation BoJ Governor Ueda strongly hinted this week that a rate hike is imminent, with policymakers growing concerned about falling behind the inflation curve. With wage growth remaining historically strong... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2026) The continued strength in wage growth gives the Bank of Japan the green light to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting on 16 th June. 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) While we suspect the labour market is too weak to generate big second-round effects, the inevitable rise in CPI inflation from 2.8% in April to a peak of 4.0% early next year under our baseline... 3rd June 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The price of free time in Latin America Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most... 2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Minimum Wage Decision 2026/27 The strong increase in the minimum wage this year makes it more likely that wage growth will overshoot the RBA’s expectations, bolstering the case for additional policy tightening. 2nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth accelerating despite weak activity The surprise 0.1% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week, but the bigger concern for the Bank of Canada was arguably the evidence of accelerating wage growth despite... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Resilient activity data point to rate hike next month While the BoJ’s measures of underlying inflation were the weakest they’ve been in years in April, the recent surge in input costs due to the Iran War will result in a renewed strengthening. Indeed... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Apr. 26) & Tokyo CPI (May 26) The April activity data show that Japan’s economy is shrugging off the energy cost shock and cement the case for a BoJ rate hike next month. 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Softer payroll gain and unemployment rate to rise We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a smaller 65,000 in May, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.4%. 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy growing slowly but jobs market will remain tight Italy’s unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since the mid-1970s, but recent declines have been driven by young people leaving the labour force rather than rising employment. Even if the... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
