Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) The economic fallout from events in the Middle East is developing broadly in line with our baseline scenario, leaving WTI on track to average $80/barrel in the second half of the year. The reduced... 22nd April 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb./Mar. 2026) While the fall in the unemployment rate in February suggests the labour market was stabilising around the turn of the year, the decline in payroll employment in March suggests that the rise in energy... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show war putting nascent recovery at risk The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show that easing concern among firms and households regarding trade tensions have been swiftly replaced by fresh anxieties about falling activity and... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export dependence deepens, labour market softens The sectoral breakdown of GDP released today shows that industry outperformed last quarter, with much of the Q1 acceleration driven by strong external demand. But industry is less labour intensive... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ will wait until June before tightening policy again Bank of Japan Governor Ueda signaled this week that a rate hike at the Bank’s April meeting is off the table. While there’s a risk of prolonged inaction, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (March 2026) The latest data will reinforce the RBA’s assessment that upside risks to inflation are greater than downside risks to the labour market. 16th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2026) March’s uneventful Labour Force Survey, paired with the drop back in oil prices in recent days, supports our view that the Bank of Canada will be content to wait until next year to change policy. 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2026) The larger-than-expected rebound in non-farm payrolls in March mainly reflects a reversal of the strike and weather effects that weighed on hiring in February, rather than being a sign that the labour... 3rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 26) The Tankan survey showed that firms are shrugging off the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which should encourage the BoJ to hike rates at this month’s meeting. 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly SEPH paints a brighter picture of employment this year The large decline in the official population data last quarter suggests the Labour Force Survey is still not entirely picking up the collapse in immigration and should therefore give a more... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rising inflation expectations are a problem for the RBA There are signs that Australia's electricity inflation will ease in the coming months, as domestic generation costs remain contained despite the crisis. However, the more pressing concern for... 27th March 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound after weather and strike disruption We estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by an above-consensus 125,000 in March following the disruption from severe weather and strikes in February. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is likely... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
