Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2025) The bumper 228,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in March offers some welcome good news amid the escalating global trade war, showing that the labour market remains healthy despite the drag from DOGE-led... 4th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2025) While US tariffs will be the obvious culprit for the fall in employment in March, two-thirds of the decline was concentrated in the services sector, suggesting that other factors were at play... 4th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data largely static for now February’s JOLTS data show a labour market settling back into its pre-pandemic norms. With limited signs of DOGE’s trimming of the federal workforce in the survey, all eyes will now turn to March’s... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Headwinds strengthen and tailwinds lighten We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from... 31st March 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risks to the upside for euro-zone net migration Net immigration to the euro-zone has been very high in recent years, and the risks are skewed towards it exceeding the European Commission’s projection of 0.3% per year over the long term. The... 28th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2025) The EC survey for March shows a deterioration in business and consumer sentiment in the euro-zone, consistent with GDP doing little more than stagnate in Q1. This is a reminder that while sentiment in... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA remains on course to deliver shallow easing cycle With its eyes on the May general election, the Australian government has put forward an array of new spending measures in its 2025/26 Budget. However, we don't believe the scope of fiscal expansion is... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to be only a modest drag on payrolls DOGE-led layoffs of approximately 25,000 junior federal employees will be a modest drag on March payrolls, but they should be offset a rebound in weather-sensitive sectors. We forecast a smaller yet... 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025) With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s poor demographics are not destiny just yet While Korea’s productivity growth has slowed, this has been offset by faster employment growth as more women and elderly have entered the labour market. If that trend continues and productivity growth... 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
